Can the Buzz Rock and Oscar transform the machine to break into a blow at the box office?

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is undoubtedly the most successful wrestler who has become an actor of all time. As for the “best” in this category? This is another conversation entirely, and I would expect many Dave Bautista fans to speak. The fact is that Johnson has become synonymous with success in the box office, after having made more than $ 15 billion in world ticket sales during his career. The question is to know: the rock (armed with its reputation as “viagra franchise”) transform “The smashing machine” of A24 into a legitimate winner?

Directed by Benny Safdie (“UNCUT Gems”), “The Smashing Machine” is currently considering a national opening weekend in the fork of $ 20 million upon arrival next weekend, by deadline. People of box office theory are slightly less bruise, with expectations in the range of 10 to 19 million dollars. At the top of these projections, it would be able to become the second weekend of opening at the A24 box office at the “Civil War”, which made its debut at 25.5 million dollars on the way to more than $ 100 million worldwide. ($ 127.3 million, to be more exact.) It is a good company.

The film tells the story of the legendary real mixed martial arts and the UFC Mark Kerr fighter. Johnson plays Kerr, with the trailers of “The Smashing Machine” promising an amazing transformation for the actor. The nominee of the Emily Blunt Oscars (“Oppenheimer”) also plays. The film generated a legitimate Oscar buzz for Johnson during its festival race leading to its large theatrical outing. This, associated with the general capacity of rock to bring out the moviegoers in mass, should easily push this film to the higher projections of current projections.

Competition will not be a huge factor either. On October 3 will also see the release of the horror film focused on IFC dogs “Good Boy”, which should currently reach between $ 3 and 6 million. Of course, the biggest competition will come from Taylor Swift, which brings “the official party of a showgirl” to theaters this weekend.

For those who may need recycling, the film “The Eras Tour” by Swift made an amazing 249.5 million dollars at the world box office in 2023. When A24 chose this release date, he did not know that Swift would do a theater release for his new album. The good news is that these films probably opt for a very different audience. The other good news is that the celebration of the release of the Swift album is a one -week agreement. A24, on the other hand, is there for the long term, hoping for a film that can play until the end of the year while the rewards season heats up.

Even at the bottom of projections, there is hope. A24 “materialists” opened $ 11.3 million in the summer and have since given more than $ 103 million worldwide. (And this film was not the rock there.) Likewise, the budget for the last of Safdie would be in the range of $ 40 million. If it is really true, one more than $ 100 million world finish, associated with a little love to the Oscars, was worth it for the studio.

Although people out in theaters for non -franchise prices has been more difficult than ever, the combination of a friendly story, a powerful star doing something unexpected and a solid buzz could be successful here. This absolutely helps that “The Smashing Machine” has deserved generally very favorable criticisms, with a lot of praise going to Johnson’s performance.

The UFC is very popular. Johnson is very popular. A24 has a faithful audience to some extent. It’s not a overcrowded weekend. As such, there is a very real chance that Johnson’s star power can work on his magic for a smaller film and not franchised here, especially if he can hang out beyond the opening weekend (assuming that the word of the general movies is good). It could be a turning point for the rock.

“The Smashing Machine” will be released in theaters on October 3, 2025.