While Donald J. Trump injected chaos into the world by rotating American alliances and threatening economic disorders with his price wall, China has tried to sell a coherent message: we will be a global stability force for a turbulent period.
This land will be more difficult to compete while Xi Jinping visits Moscow this week for interviews with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who will honor the Chinese chief as the “main guest” during a military parade marking Friday the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany during the Second World War.
For Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, the visit is an opportunity to sunbathe their legitimacy as leaders of countries who defeated fascist Germany and imperial Japan. Mr. XI wants to use the birthday to establish parallels between fascism and what he described as American intimidation.
“We have to learn from history, to draw the wisdom and strength of the deep world war from the Second World War and the great victory of the anti-fascist war, resolutely opposing all forms of hegemony and power policy, and jointly creating a better future for humanity,” said Xi in a signed article published in the Russian media on Wednesday.
But his presence alongside Mr. Putin to Red Square will inevitably remind the world of the support of China to the war of Russia in Ukraine, which has been putting itself for more than three years, killing hundreds of thousands and upsetting European security.
The visit optics could undermine China’s efforts to repair its relations with Europe in order to try to compensate for the pain of its punitive trade war with the United States. US and Chinese officials will organize initial commercial negotiations this weekend in Switzerland, but the probability of a prolonged fight remains high. China must maintain access, even to extend, markets like Europe, for its exports which were previously intended for American buyers.
“The presence of Xi in Moscow, alongside Putin, will serve as a recall for Europe proximity to this relationship, and the threat it could one day appear on the eastern NATO flank,” said Noah Barkin, a main adviser to the Rhodium Group and a main researcher visiting the German Marshall Fund in the United States based in Berlin.
This proximity may have recently been overshadowed by Trump’s attempts to conclude a peace agreement in Ukraine which has strongly favored Russia, added Mr. Barkin, but it will now come back that China is trying to court Europe.
Beijing has long sought to take off the wealthy nations of the European Union of Washington’s influence. These efforts were blocked by tensions on human rights; A muddy commercial imbalance fed by the flow of Chinese exports such as electric vehicles; And above all, the continuous diplomatic and economic support of China in Russia despite the war in Ukraine.
In recent days, Beijing has tried to initiate a thaw with Brussels, feeling an opening of the fracturing of the transatlantic alliance due to the antagonism of the Trump administration towards Europe. In a statement Tuesday, Mr. Xi called for a “healthy and stable China-EU relationship”.
On Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China and the European Parliament had agreed to remove the restrictions on exchanges between their civil servants and confirmed that China had lifted sanctions against members of the European Parliament. China’s movements were considered by analysts as an attempt to persuade Europeans to restart talks on an investment agreement in standby, although there seems to be little enthusiasm in Brussels to do this.
Xi tries to find a “risky diplomatic balance”, hoping that he can exploit divisions in Europe between those who consider China as a threat, and those who consider it a vital trading partner, said Alicja Bachulska, expert in the Chinese foreign policy of the European Council on foreign relations.
But in Beijing on Tuesday, the European Union ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, used a speech during a reception celebrating the links between the European Union and China to clearly emphasize how the Russian war against Ukraine weighed heavily on the block of 27 countries.
“The EU will be held with Ukraine, everything you need and for how long it takes,” said Mr. Toledo at an event attended by one of the most senior Chinese diplomats Hua Chunying.
To show China’s friendship with Russia, the honor custody of the Chinese people’s liberation army will occur during the day of the Victory Day in Moscow. Mr. Putin has long attached great importance to May 9, the day Moscow celebrates his victory over the Nazis. The Soviet Union has lost about 27 million soldiers and civilians during the war, an amazing number of death, which many Russians consider the high cost that Moscow had to bear to save the world of the fascist threat.
The Russian chief relied on this emotional story to motivate his forces to fight against Ukraine, falsely throwing the Ukrainian chief, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, as head of a Nazi government who still has to be defeated, whatever the cost.
Perhaps no foreign leader was no longer useful for Mr. Putin in this war than Mr. XI. While Russia faced western isolation, China has increased its commitment with Moscow, keeping the Russian economy afloat by oil purchases and other natural resources and providing Russia with a double -use critical technology and components to support the war effort. China has also attracted shocks from the Russian consumption economy, becoming a higher seller of cars and other lasting goods, while Western brands withdrew from the Russian market.
As much as Mr. Xi might want to win in Europe, his relationship with Mr. Putin is essential. He considers Russia as a critical counterweight in the United States and a partner to forge a suspicious alternative world order to Western domination.
“Standing next to Putin will point out that he has a lever effect, he has bet on the right horse, and the public will be a domestic and in the world of world,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, referring to developing countries.
Putin said last month that Xi would be “the main guest” of Russia during the victory day celebrations. Moscow will also treat the trip of the Chinese leader, extending from May 7 to 10, as a “separate visit” with discussions and bilateral events, said Putin. The leaders should sign agreements and, in September, Mr. Putin will visit China when Beijing will mark the anniversary of the end of the Second World War.
Mr. Putin and Mr. XI, who have met dozens of times in the last decade, regularly speaks of a stable, sustainable and long -term relationship between their country. Projecting solidarity with Russia is crucial for China at a time when President Trump continued an attempt to bring together with Moscow while launching a trade war against Beijing.
“The priority was to report in the United States that China and Russia have shared an unbreakable link. There have been a few moments of doubts and suspicions in recent months, in particular given the direct engagement between the United States and Russia,” Yun Sun, Chinese program director at the Stimson Center in Washington. Now, with American efforts to mediate a peace agreement in Ukraine in an impasse, “there are more incentives between China and Russia to present a solid image of their alignment.”
Zixu Wang Contribution of research by Hong Kong.
