Why voters may be tired

The history of the Oscars has not been kind to sequels, much less the “three sequels”.

The third installment of James Cameron’s Pandora saga arrives in theaters this December with technological wonders and box office expectations that will make most studios salivate. But when it comes to Academy voters, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” faces a challenge that no amount of motion-capture innovation can solve: the “been there, done that” problem.

When voters rewarded the original “Avatar” film with nine nominations – including Best Picture and Best Director – in 2010, they expressed genuine admiration for a cinematic experience that seemed to pave the way for the future of cinema. When “The Way of Water” surfaced 13 years later with four nominations (for best picture and in three technical categories), the message was clear: impressive, but we’ve seen this magic trick before.

Now comes “Fire and Ash,” and the Academy’s collective shrug may already be audible.

The fundamental problem isn’t quality: Cameron rarely delivers anything less than technically extraordinary. The problem is novelty, or rather the lack of it. Oscar voters, especially in the era of ranked-choice voting for best picture, gravitate toward films that represent cultural moments or artistic breakthroughs. By asking them to marvel at Pandora a third time, Cameron competes with their instinct to advocate for something that seems urgent or culturally vital.

The Academy has always been hesitant to embrace anything resembling a sequel. Only 10 sequels have been nominated for Best Picture; only two – “The Godfather Part II” (1974) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) – have won.

Let’s not forget: the Oscar race is full of films hungry for awards. “Fire and Ash” will fight for oxygen against prestige dramas, biopics and likely several films with more obvious emotional hooks. The film’s $400 million-plus budget and franchise obligations mean it must be a four-quadrant blockbuster first, and an Oscar contender second.

Either way, that’s not where Cameron’s head is at — he’s building a five-film saga that prioritizes technological legacy over trophies — but it’s a reality that shapes how voters will receive his film. When a film screams “built for world domination,” it’s harder to position it as an underdog or a passion project, both narratives that appeal well to voters.

So if “Fire and Ash” wants to surprise the skeptics, a few things need to fall into place.

There has to be a real emotional core to a franchise whose characters didn’t resonate like Cameron’s “Titanic” lovers or the “Terminator” heroes. If voters find that in this entry, it will change the conversation.

Plus, Cameron has always been selective about good humor during awards season, but if he wants a comeback narrative, he’ll have to work the rooms and remind voters why his vision matters.

And if luck has it, “Fire and Ash” could tap into the cultural zeitgeist. Its themes of environmental disaster, indigenous rights, and intertribal conflict might suddenly seem prescient in a way that elevates the film beyond spectacle.

But let’s be honest: none of these are a sure bet. The real question is whether “Fire and Ash” can actually break programming. The Na’vi like to say, “I see you,” but when it comes to that last entry, I don’t see any voters participating.

Updated Oscar predictions for this week are below.

*** = EXPECTED WINNER
(All candidates listed below are listed in alphabetical order)

Best picture
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (targeted features)
“It was just an accident” (Neon)
“Supreme Marty” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Dream Trains” (Netflix)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “The Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Josh Safdie, “Supreme Marty” (A24)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan, “The Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original screenplay
“It was just an accident” (Neon) – Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ryan Coogler ***

Adapted scenario
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) – Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake the Dead Man” (Netflix) – Rian Johnson

Foundry
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) – Nina Gold
“New Wave” (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) – Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey

Animated feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“Demon Hunters KPop” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the character of the rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production design
“Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Supreme Marty” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (targeted features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Dream Trains” (Netflix)

Costume design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (targeted features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Film editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Hamnet” (targeted features)
“Supreme Marty” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Makeup and hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The smashing machine” (A24)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Her
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Visual effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Bad Guy: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Original music
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ludwig Göransson ***

Original song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Saw the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Clothed by the Sun” from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)

Feature documentary
“Come See Me in a Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“2000 meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International characteristic
“It Was Just an Accident” by France (Neon)
“No other choice” (Neon)
Brazil’s “Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)

Top 5 finalists for Oscar nominations (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (10); “Frankenstein” and “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Supreme Marty” and “Sentimental Value” (6)

Top 5 Projected Oscar Nomination Leaders (Studios): Warner Bros. (33); Netflix (18); Neon (15); Focus Features (10); Universal images (9)