Why Myanmar elections are being called a ‘sham’: NPR

CHIANG RAI, Thailand — Myanmar’s military rulers plan to hold staggered general elections that begin Dec. 28 and end in late January. They hope it will bring some stability to the country and help end the junta’s international diplomatic isolation.

The vote will take place despite a brutal and ongoing civil war that followed the military intervention. 2021 coupplunging the country into chaos. Since then, the army has indiscriminately bombed civilians, thrown tens of thousands of people in prison and left millions more displaced. Aid agencies say more than 11 million people face food insecurity, as the army attempts to reclaim vast swathes of territory captured by the opposition since the coup.

“Does anyone believe that there will be free and fair elections in Myanmar? asked UN Secretary-General António Guterres at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia in late October. “It is abundantly clear that in the current state of the conflict and given the military junta’s human rights record…that the conditions for free and fair elections are not met.”

To ensure the elections go smoothly, the military introduced a new law that prohibits what it calls “interference” in the electoral process.

A woman walks past election campaign billboards ahead of Myanmar’s general elections in Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay Region, Myanmar. The Burmese military has promised phased elections that would begin on December 28.

SAI AUNG MAIN/AFP via Getty Images

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SAI AUNG MAIN/AFP via Getty Images

Human Rights Watch said in November that nearly 100 people had been arrested under the law. Last week, the military said that number had more than doubled, with some accused of posting on social media critical of the electoral process, or even simply “liking” someone else’s post. Several of them face long prison sentences for questioning an election, even though military leader Min Aung Hlaing admits it will not be held in many contested or rebel-held areas, almost half the country.

Most Western governments refused to send observers, denouncing the election as a “fakeCritics say the military is trying to create a parliament dominated by the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). This is the same party that was savagely attacked by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in the last 2020 elections – which set the stage for the February 2021 coup.

The NLD is this time banned. Suu Kyi and other party leaders remain in prison. “For all I know, she could be dead,” her son Kim Aris told Reuters recently. And the regime has made considerable efforts in recent months to recapture territory lost to rebels to bolster its election chances.

“After a few years of catastrophic losses, the military began to regain the initiative and push back opposition forces in key strategic areas across the country,” says Morgan Michaels, a Southeast Asia security analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore.

The military conscription drive is one reason, he says, as is the increased use of sophisticated drones and better organization on the battlefield in general. At the same time, he says: “The opposition groups are incredibly fragmented and have also made a number of strategic errors of their own.”

China considers Myanmar military a necessary evil

The junta also received a lot of help from neighboring countries. China — one of the few countries to support the elections, along with Russia and, to a lesser extent, neighboring India. China doesn’t like Myanmar’s military or its coup, but hates the chaos that followed even more, says Yun Sun, who directs the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC.

From Beijing’s perspective, she adds, the civil war in Myanmar has threatened China’s huge infrastructure projects in Myanmar – gas and oil pipelines – as well as its geopolitical ambitions. “If you think about the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the key word here is corridor. …Myanmar is China’s corridor leading to South Asia, Southeast Asia and also the Indian Ocean. When the country is in civil war, the China-Myanmar economic corridor goes nowhere,” Sun says.

In this context, she said, China views the Myanmar military “as a necessary evil.”

“You can call them an ulcer or a tumor, a malignant presence in the internal politics of the country, but it already exists and it will lead nowhere,” she says. “Five years of civil war have not expelled them, and the Chinese will not tip the balance of power such that the military is forced to leave.”

In fact, China does the exact opposite — put pressure on armed ethnic organizations in the north to cede conquered territories to the regime. Most importantly, he called on China’s largest and best-equipped militias to stop arming other rebel groups or else. And that’s a problem, Michaels says.

“Without a supply of weapons and ammunition, opposition groups simply do not have the firepower they need to launch major offensives,” says Michaels. At the same time, he says, “the opposition groups are incredibly fragmented and have also made a number of strategic errors.”

Opposition weariness strengthens army’s chances

There is another factor working in the junta’s favor: fatigue. Nearly five years later, the optimism of many young people who joined the armed struggle against the military after the coup is starting to fade, according to analyst Min Zaw Oo.

“One of the indicators is the number of these fighters who are now going to Thailand and settling in places like Chiang Mai,” he says. He suggests that this shows “how young people are abandoning armed struggles to neighboring countries for better livelihoods.”

But many remain committed to the cause of overthrowing the army. Rebel commander Ko Ta Mar was a doctor before the civil war and traded his stethoscope for an automatic weapon to fight the army after the coup. He says he is frustrated by the opposition’s lack of leadership and unity.

“There are good times and bad times in this revolution,” he says, but he also believes it is an existential moment for the people of the country – their best chance to end the military’s long-standing grip on power and politics for good. It’s something he says he’s still willing to fight for, even with the opposition’s recent setbacks.

“If you look at the crisis in the country as a disease, elections are like injecting steroids into a patient. The pain may be relieved temporarily, but it will be worse in the long run. That is why we reject elections,” he says.

But after nearly five years of war, economic hardship and displacement, many Burmese simply want anything that offers them hope of some relief, says David Mathieson, a longtime Myanmar analyst. He says the National Unity Shadow Government – ​​the puppet political successor to the government ousted in the coup – is failing in the minds of many citizens and citizen soldiers fighting the army.

The government of national unity”[doesn’t] have a plan,” Mathieson says.

“There’s a growing sense that it’s not about the elections, it’s about the type of regime, the quasi-civilian government, that comes afterward,” Mathieson says. Many people he’s talked to, he says, tell him, “We hate the regime, but at least they have a plan, they have a way to get us out of this situation and stabilize us.” We don’t think there will be a bright democratic future, but it could be something. »

The bar is low, but the military is betting that it could be set just high enough to achieve its twin goals: restoring some order domestically and easing its diplomatic isolation abroad. The second and third rounds of elections are scheduled for January.

Wai Moe contributed reporting from the Thailand-Myanmar border.