To date, the world has accustomed an American president who runs hot and cold on international conflicts faced with him, his interest in addressing their hair removal and by winning as prospects for reflux of rapid resolution.
The Russian War in Ukraine – once a daily objective of that of President Donald Trump this year which now seems to have been largely fell from his radar screen – is an example.
But the War of Israel-Hamas in Gaza seems to maintain a close hold on the attention of the Mercurial President.
Why we wrote this
The negotiation of thorny obstacles to the peace plan of President Donald Trump for Gaza could take time. But with so much conduct at the end of the war, especially a chance to succeed where others have failed and perhaps winning a Nobel, it is likely to be patient.
While the negotiators for Israel and Hamas sit in Egypt for indirect talks who, according to many, represent the best opportunity to date to put the war at two years, Mr. Trump shows an accent on the conflict and offer daily clues about the reason why he, for him, is different.
On the one hand, a president who considers himself the largest job in the world is obsessed with the challenge of delivering not only a cease-fire and the release of the hostages that Hamas holds in Gaza, according to some diplomats and experts in foreign policy.
The bigger is the ambition of Mr. Trump – on the basis of the 20 -point plan bearing his name – to deliver peace to a conflict that the American presidents tried and did not resolve for three quarters of a century.
“It seems that you can have peace in the Middle East for the first time in 3,000 years,” Trump told journalists on the lawn of the White House on Saturday. “We are going to have more than Gaza. We are going to have Gaza Plus Peace,” he added. “I am very honored to be part of it.”
One eye on the Nobel
In addition, the war in Gaza offers the perfect combination of possibilities likely to support the attention of the businessman Donald Trump, according to some analysts.
“President Trump sees this as the time to achieve a cease-fire, ensuring the return of hostages and provoking what he calls a lasting peace where others have failed,” said Rajan Menon, principal researcher at the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies at Columbia University.
“But beyond that, he sees this crucial moment increasing his chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize and opening the way to the massive economic development plan he has in mind for Gaza,” he adds. “This plan will be launched at a time when he and his family have considerably widened their commercial transactions in the Middle East.”
President Trump was nominated for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, which is expected to be announced on Friday. On Tuesday, he published a letter he wrote to a group of Israeli hostage families thanking them for their approval for the appointment.
However, even with all the extraordinary factors underlying Mr. Trump’s interest in Gaza, the negotiation of the main collision points exercising a final agreement is sure to test the president’s patience, according to analysts.
Trump on Monday urged negotiators so that the parties “act quickly” – even before his own team led by special advisor Steve Witkoff and son -in -law Jared Kushner went to Cairo for talks. He gave the pair on Tuesday morning at the White House.
“Everything is linked” in Gaza
“We are certainly closer to an agreement on Gaza than never before, and this is what allowed the president to win a victory tour while the parties come together in Egypt to eliminate things,” said David Schenker, former deputy secretary of state in the Middle East in the first Trump administration.
“But the 20 -point plan is quite ambitious, it really encompasses a long list of very complex problems to which we should not expect to be developed in a few days,” adds Schenker, now a member of Arab policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I agree that it’s time to seize the momentum, but there is also the real danger of descending rabbit holes.”
President Trump is likely to find more patience to conclude a Gaza peace plan because so many walks on the end of the war, adds Schenker: new progress on the Abraham agreements normalizing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, long -feeding American forces in the region.
“Everything is linked to the Gaza Peace Plan,” says Schenker, “and everyone understands it.”
The White House seemed to recognize on Monday that the complete peace plan should not be hammered in a few days, as Mr. Trump suggested during the weekend. Instead, thought seems to be a rapid agreement on the release of hostages and a cease-fire could provide “momentum” to solve other problems.
“It is very important … that we do it quickly so that we can take momentum, take out the hostages, then switch to the next part of this, which is really guaranteeing that we can create a lasting and lasting peace in Gaza and ensure that Gaza is a place that no longer threatens the security of Israel or the United States,” Karoline Leavitt told the White House.
Range of complex problems
A big question is whether Hamas would accept hostage release without other guarantees – for example, that Israel would not simply regain war once the hostages have come out.
“Part of Hamas ‘yes, but’ in Trump’s plan is their very real concern that without certain specific and restrictive guarantees in place, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu would win the victory of the hostage liberation and would continue the war, ”explains Dr. Menon.
Current on a plan for the version of the hostages will be quite difficult. The Trump plan calls for the release of all hostages within 72 hours of an agreement. But locate them and secure them all – including the bodies of deceased hostages – could extend in weeks, warn certain experts.
But as complex as the release of hostages could be, it could pale compared to the complexity of other exceptional problems. These include: the disarmament of Hamas, the withdrawal of Israel and the future governance of Gaza.
Any of them could take several days or even weeks to resolve, according to some experts.
These deadlines seem to be in contradiction with Mr. Trump’s calls to “act quickly” and conclude an agreement “in a few days”.
Dr. Menon says that he does not plan that the president loses his interest, given everything that is at stake. But Dr. Menon adds that if Bog’s words in complexity, Trump could lose patience.
“The question is now to know who he loses patience first, Hamas or Israel?” Said Dr Menon.
Netanyahu almost certainly has the advantage to avoid the anger of Mr. Trump, according to experts.
But Mr. Schenker remembers the way in which the attack on Israel’s missiles against Hamas negotiators in Qatar in September was a “moment of the watershed” for Mr. Trump, as well as the most recent flight of the White House to the President’s exasperation with the President’s exasperation with Mr. Netanyahu, which is thus thus thus thus thus thus thus thus of a questional so such such such such such such such such so such Netanyahu that he is “always more [bleeping] negative. “The two should serve as warnings to the Israeli chief that he cannot push too far, he said.
However, the key to Mr. Trump’s patience with a complex peace process will be his feeling that things progress towards the final price.
“Whether it takes 48 hours or starts to expand in days,” said Schenker, “if there is a feeling that there is progress, then I think that even for President Trump, the time he takes less important.”
