What Trump’s $ 100,000 visa means for India and American industries

Panic, confusion then a hasty climb of the White House-it was a weekend of cervical boost for hundreds of thousands of Indians on H-1B visas.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump amazed the world of technology by announcing an increase up to 50 times in the cost of qualified workers permits – at $ 100,000. Chaos followed: Silicon Valley companies urged staff not to travel outside the country, foreign workers rushed for theft and immigration lawyers have done overtime to decode the order.

On Saturday, the White House sought to calm the storm, clarifying that the costs applied only to new candidates and were unique. However, the longtime H -1B program – criticized for having undervalued American workers but has praised to attract global talents – still faces an uncertain future.

Even with the Tweak, the politician actually closed the H-1B pipeline which, for three decades, propelled the American dream for millions of Indians and, more importantly, provided the cornerstone of talents to American industries.

This pipeline reshaped the two countries. For India, the H -1B has become an aspiration vehicle: small town coders have transformed employees, families are devoted to the middle class and entire industries – from real estate airlines – aimed at a new class of globe -trotting Indians.

For the United States, this meant an infusion of talents that filled laboratories, classrooms, hospitals and start-ups. Today, leaders of Indian origin manage Google, Microsoft and IBM, and Indian doctors represent almost 6% of the workforce of American doctors.

The Indians dominate the H-1B program, representing more than 70% of beneficiaries in recent years. (China was the second source, representing around 12% of beneficiaries.)

In technology, their presence is even more striking: a request for freedom of information in 2015 showed that more than 80% of “computer” jobs have been devoted to Indian nationals – an industry of actions that initiates of initiates have not changed much.

The medical sector highlights the challenges. In 2023, more than 8,200 H-1Bs were approved to work in general medicine and surgical hospitals.

India is the largest source of graduates in international medicine (which are generally in the United States on H-1B visas) and represent approximately 22% of all international doctors. International doctors forming up to a quarter of American doctors, Indian H-1B holders are probably around 5 to 6% of the total.

Experts say that remuneration data shows why the new $ 100,000 costs from Trump are impassable. In 2023, the median salary of new H-1B employees was $ 94,000, compared to $ 129,000 for those already in the system. Since the costs target new hires, most will not even win enough to cover it, experts say.

“Since the last Directive of the White House indicates that the costs would only apply to the new H-1B beneficiaries, this is more likely to cause shortages of medium and long-term labor instead of immediate disturbance,” the BBC Gil Guerra, an analyst of immigration policies at Niskanen Center, told the BBC Gil Guerra.

India can feel shock first, but training effects could be deeper in the United States. Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys have been preparing for it for a long time by creating local workforce and changing delivery next to delivery.

The figures tell the story: Indians still represent 70% of H-1B beneficiaries, but only three of the 10 best H-1B employers had links with India in 2023, against six in 2016, according to Pew Research.

Admittedly, the IT sector of 283 billion dollars in India is faced with a calculation with its dependence on the shuttle of skilled workers in the United States, which represents more than half of its income.

The NASSCOM Informatique industry believes that the increase in visa costs could “disrupt the continuity of activities for certain onshore projects”. Customers are likely to put pressure for the project statement or delay projects until legal uncertainties are released, while companies can rethink the endowment models – move offshore work, reducing the roles on the ground and becoming much more selective in sponsorship decisions.

Indian companies are also likely to pass the increase in visa costs to American customers, explains Aditya Narayan Mishra in Ciel HR, a main endowment company.

“With employers who are reluctant to engage in the heavy cost of sponsorship, we could see greater dependence on distance contracts, offshore delivery and concert workers.”

The broader impact on the United States could be serious: hospitals confronted with shortages of doctors, universities that fight to attract STEM students, and start-ups without the Google or Amazon lobbying muscle are probably the hardest affected.

“He [visa fee hike] Will force American companies to radically change their hiring and offshore policies a significant quantity of their work. He will also prohibit the founders and CEOs who will manage American companies. This will bring a devastating blow to American innovation and competitiveness, “David Bier, director of immigration studies at Cato Institute told BBC.

This anxiety is taken up by other experts. “The demand for new workers in fields such as technology and medicine [in US] should increase (although unevenly), and given the specialization and criticism of these domains, a shortage that even lasts a few years could have a serious impact on the American economy and national well-being, “explains Mr. Guerra.

“It will also encourage more qualified Indian workers to examine other countries for international studies and have a cascade effect on the American university system.”

The impact, in fact, will be most strongly felt by Indian students, who constitute one in four international students in the United States.

Sudhanshu Kaushik, founder of the North American Association of Indian Students, which represents 25,000 members in 120 universities, says that the moment – just after the registrations in September – left many new amazes.

“It looked like a direct attack, because the costs are already paid, so there is a large cost flowed between $ 50,000 and $ 100,000 per student – and the most lucrative path to enter the American workforce has now been erased,” Kaushik told the BBC.

He predicts that the decision will come to American university consumption next year, because most Indian students opt for countries where they can “deposit permanent roots”.

For the moment, the full impact of the tax increase remains uncertain.

Immigration lawyers expect Trump’s decision to do judicial disputes soon. Mr. Guerra warns that the benefits could be unequal: “I expect the new H-1B policy will bring a certain number of negative consequences for the United States, although it takes some time to see what it could be.”

“For example, given that the decree allows certain companies to be excluded, it may be possible that certain users of heavy H-1B such as Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta find a way to be exempt from H-1B policy. If they all get exemptions, however, this would largely come to the defeat of the purpose of the costs.”

As the dust sets in, the H -1B upheaval is less like a tax on foreign workers and more as a stress test for American companies – and the economy. H-1B visa holders and their families contribute about $ 86 billion a year to the US economy, including 24 billion dollars in federal payroll taxes and $ 11 billion in state and local taxes.

The way companies will react will determine whether the United States continues to lead in innovation and talent – or bite the field to more welcoming savings.