On Friday, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan for Israel to take control of Gaza City, where approximately a million Palestinians – on half of the Gaza population – now live. Many have been forced to shelter it; The Israeli army has taken control of seventy-five percent from the rest of the territory. The Netanyahu’s plan, which, according to him, is necessary to “eliminate Hamas”, is opposed to a large part of the military leaders of Israel, and even by a certain number of centrist and central politicians on the right. But he seems determined to continue the War of Israel in Gaza, in part to maintain the support of far -right members in his cabinet, who openly spoke of reinstalling him and pushing the Palestinian residents to “emigrate”. A real invasion of Gaza City may not occur for days or weeks, if it does – there have been speculation that the threat of invasion is a negotiation tactic to bring Hamas to release the twenty hostages of the remaining life which are still held in Gaza. But, if the invasion is advancing, it is almost certain to exacerbate the horrible humanitarian situation. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, two hundred and twelve Gazans have hungry since the start of the war, and those who remain faced with an aggravation of the humanitarian crisis. The total number of Palestinian deaths is now greater than sixty thousand.
I recently talked by phone with Amos Harel, defense analyst at HaaretzOn the military and political dimensions of Netanyahu’s announcement. During our conversation, which was published for duration and clarity, we also discussed what Netanyahu really targets by accelerating the war, if it is planned to repopulate Gaza with Israeli colonists, and how Netanyahu has changed since the start of the war.
What does Netanyahu offer in particular militarily here and what makes it such an aggressive step?
There is always the question of what Netanyahu means. He does not mean what he says, and he does not say what he means – so it is sometimes difficult to come together. What he says out loud is that it is a way to defeat and destroy Hamas, and he says that, since all hope is lost regarding negotiations for a hostage agreement, the right thing to do would be to resume military pressure on Hamas. So what he suggests is a reoccupation of Gaza City, something that Israel has not done since the first months of war. And then this time, he claims that, if they push the population of Gaza City and finally deal with Hamas activists, this will gradually lead to a defeat of Hamas, and in one way or another, miraculously, the hostages will also be released.
So you force people to go out, and Hamas stays, then you beat Hamas? Isn’t this idea similar to what Netanyahu has spoken before, and that didn’t work? Is there something new here?
I am not a big fan of Netanyahu, and you must admit that previous attempts to take over the cities did not achieve the objective of annihilation of Hamas as he claimed. But, if you look at what happened to Khan Younis and Rafah, Israel has completely pushed the population almost completely. It happened fairly quickly. You remember that there was a heated debate between the Biden and Netanyahu administration on Rafah, and yet Israel has pushed the population and killed many Hamas activists there. Would something different happen this time? I don’t think.
The main difference between that moment is that Hamas is no longer a military organization. It was that there was a hierarchy. There were tight control and control networks. There were responsible people who made the decisions and so on. This is no longer the case. What you have now is a terrorist organization using guerrilla methods. Most of its leaders have been killed. Most of his fighters are injured or dead. They now have younger replacements, sometimes children who get basic training and are sent to the front. How do you beat such an organization? There is no time Iwo Jima.
My suspicion is that it is not really after that. What interests him, for his political survival, is to extend the war. This is the best excuse for doing nothing else in the country, especially not to launch an independent investigation of October 7. His corruption trial would probably be delayed if there are turbulent fights in progress. [Opposition politicians have called for a commission to look into the security and intelligence failures on October 7th. Netanyahu has rejected the idea, saying it would be predetermined, and warned about the role of the “deep state.”] And the extreme and messianic festivals on the right would be satisfied with a new attempt to occupy the band.
So, essentially, they tried this in other places at other times of war, and this has brought the population out, despite the humanitarian consequences.
And they also destroyed entire cities.
But even if Israel has killed many Hamas fighters and weakened their chain of command, at this stage, its structure does not really exist. And you just have this organization which essentially recruits new people from the population, even without a chain of command.
Yeah, of course. Hamas has changed the rules of the game. And if you do not adapt to the different game, then the whole discussion on destruction is almost meaningless. Again, you do not fight an army of terror, so to speak. You fight a new organization or a different version of an organization that is not too worried about victims, destruction, population above the ground and its suffering. And, even if there are leaders, they have had many leaders since the start of the war. The others were murdered by Israel.
What you describe seems to be an insurrection, something that requires a kind of political solution.
To a certain extent, yes. Despite all my criticisms of Netanyahu’s policies, I cannot avoid the fact that we are fighting an enemy here. It is not a force that you can easily reason with or behaves according to the same logic as Israel applies.
What logic are you talking about?
This is a good question. The logic is that, if Israel applies sufficient military pressure, then they extend because it would not be logical to continue to resist. It’s not the right way. This is not how Hamas works. They have an extreme jihadi ideology, and I think that for them, it is more the long term and not so much here and now. If the Gaza Strip is destroyed, this does not mean that its new leader would feel a kind of remorse and decide to stop.
I continue to read that this last push of Netanyahu is unpopular in Israel and that Netanyahu is a political animal, which is a little contradiction, but you say earlier that it could keep it in power. What did you mean?
First of all, it is deeply unpopular according to the polls, but the government too. All public-op-plan polls since the start of the war show a deep distrust of Netanyahu and show that it would lose if elections were held. Most people have a hostage agreement and paying any price to recover them, including the release of all Hamas prisoners in Israeli prisons. And also, there is a fairly stable majority for an independent investigation committee on October 7, which is extremely important because it will probably show Netanyahu’s responsibility. But you need a vote without confidence to make an election. And what he does better than anyone is maintaining his coalition by all the necessary means. It has a fairly stable majority at the Knesset, despite being extremely unpopular. In order to maintain this situation, what he needs is to keep his partners satisfied.
And then, of course, you have the two extreme right parts led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and what they want is also clear now. They don’t just want to win the war; They want the total destruction of Gaza. They want what they call “voluntary emigration”, which is in fact forced emigration after making life unbearable for any Palestinian in Gaza, and they want to rebuild colonies. Now it is quite clear that these politicians are ready to have the hostages kill by Hamas. It doesn’t matter to them.
Do you think Netanyahu wants colonies in Gaza?
I think Netanyahu wants to survive politically. I think that, if there was possible that there is forced emigration from Palestinians when, at the same time, he and Israel survive, he would like it. But I think it is much more clever than that, and he understands that it is extremely difficult to achieve and that the international backlash would be enormous. He therefore does not seek a goal. There are always a few bullets in the air, and he decides at the last minute which path of action is better for him to survive. But it is survival above all.
He comes from a famous right -wing family. He spent his entire career on the right and is a friend of the colonies. He warmly welcomed Donald Trump’s proposal, who, as seriously as you take, essentially forced Gazans to get out of Gaza to create a new “riviera” and lead to what I imagine would be an Israeli presence there. Why should we not believe that Netanyahu can also wish this result, even if he would not do it overnight?
