Every 20 nations, except three, provide or provide for increased production in 2030 on at least one fossil fuel. Eleven now project a higher production of at least one fuel in 2030 than they did two years ago.
The expected overall production of coal, petroleum and gas for 2030 is now 120% more than what would comply with the tracks to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees fahrenheit) and 77% higher than the scenarios to continue to warm up to less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). The greater the warming, the greater the consequences on extreme weather conditions, rising seas and other impacts.
Although the previous reports of the report were published as part of the Auspices of the United Environment program, the version of this year was published independently.
In a sign of the continuous failure of the world to limit the use of fossil fuels, the modeling scenarios used by the report become obsolete. Because the nations have continued to burn more coal, gas and oil each year, future cuts should now be even more steep than what is reflected in the report to maintain climatic targets at hand.
“We are already entering a kind of red and our debt fire,” said Grant.
Three nations alone – China, the United States and Russia – were responsible for more than half of the “extraction” emissions in 2022, or the pollution that occurs when fossil fuels are burned.
Ira Joseph, a main research partner at the Center on Global Energy Policy from Columbia University, which was not involved in the report, said that its accent on supply highlights a significant part of the global energy markets.
“Any type of tax alternatives or subsidies or, as you want to call them, lower the cost of the profitability threshold for oil and gas production,” said Joseph. The drop in costs means more supply, which, in turn, lowers prices and stimulates more demand. The projections and the plans on which the report is based, said Joseph, reflect this contribution and this world socket.
