The combustion of fossil fuels caused 1,500 deaths in the recent European heat wave, study estimates

Washington – Climate change of human origin is responsible for the death of around 1,500 people in the European heat wave of last week, revealed a rapid study of the first time.

These 1,500 people “only died because of climate change, so they would not have died if it would not be that of our burning of oil, coal and gas in the last century,” said the co-author of the Friederike Otto study, climatologist at Imperial College in London.

Scientists from Imperial and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have used techniques evaluated by peers to calculate that around 2,300 people in 12 cities are probably died of the heat of last week of high temperatures, with almost two thirds that die because of the additional degrees that climate change has added to the natural heat of the summer.

Past rapid attribution studies have not gone beyond the evaluation of the role of climate change in weather effects such as additional heat, floods or drought. This study goes further in the direct connection of the use of coal, oil and natural gas to people who die.

“The heat waves are silent killers and their impact on health is very difficult to measure”, “said co-author Gary Konstantinoudis, biostatistic at Imperial College.” People do not understand the real mortality assessment of heat waves and this (doctors, hospitals and governments) do not report underlying heat problems “and attribute it instead of cardiac problems or other organs.

Of the 1,500 deaths assigned to climate change, the study revealed that more than 1,100 were people aged 75 or over.

“It’s summer, so it is sometimes hot,” said the main author of the Ben Clarke study of Imperial College at a press conference on Tuesday. “The influence of climate change has raised it from several degrees and what is done is that certain groups of people are more in a dangerous territory and that is what is important. This is what we really want to highlight here. For some people, it is still hot, but for the moment a huge sector of the population, it is more dangerous.”

The researchers examined on June 23 to July 2 in London; Paris; Frankfurt, Germany; Budapest, Hungary; Zagreb, Croatia; Athens, Greece; Barcelona, ​​Spain; Madrid; Lisbon, Portugal; Rome; Milan and Sassari, Italy. They found that, with the exception of Lisbon, the additional heat of greenhouse gases added 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 7.2 degrees fahrenheit) to what would have been a more natural heat wave. London has drawn the best party from almost 4 degrees (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Climate change has only added about one degree to the top temperature of Lisbon, the study calculated, mainly due to the moderating effect of the Atlantic Ocean, said Otto.

This additional heat of climate change added the most additional dead in Milan, Barcelona and Paris and the least to Sassari, Frankfort and Lisbon, revealed the study. The figure of 1,500 is the middle of the range of overall death estimates related to the climate which go from around 1,250 to around 1,700.

Wednesday’s study is not yet evaluated by peers. This is an extension of the work carried out by an international team of scientists who carry out rapid attribution studies to seek the fingerprints of global warming in the growing number of extreme meteorological events in the world, and combine this with long -standing established epidemiological research which examine the trends of death which differ from what is considered normal.

The researchers compared what the thermometers read last week to what computer simulations would have taken place in a world without the warming gases of the planet from the use of fossil fuels. The health researchers then compared the estimates – there are not yet solid figures – for heat deaths in what has just occurred that heat deaths would be expected for each city without these additional heat degrees.

There are long-standing established formulas which calculate the excess deaths different from normal depending on the location, demographic data, temperatures and other factors and these are used, said Otto and Konstantinoudis. And health researchers take into account many variables such as smoking and chronic diseases, so it compares similar people, except for temperature so that they know that this is what is to blame, said Konstantinoudis.

Studies in 2021 have generally linked excessive heat deaths to climate change and carbon emissions caused by humans, but not specific events such as the hot fate of last week. A study in 2023 in nature medicine estimated that since 2015, each degree Celsius, the temperature has increased in Europe, there are 18,547 additional summer heat deaths.

Studies like Wednesday “put an end to the game of riddles on the damage of the continuing fossil fuel continuing,” said Dr. Jonathan Patz, director of the Center for Health, Energy and Environmental Research at the University of Wisconsin. He was not part of the research, but said that he “combined the most recent climate and health methods and found that each fraction of a degree of warming concerning extreme heat waves”.

Dr. Courtney Howard, doctor and president of the Canadian Emergency Salle of Global Climate and Health Alliance, said: “Studies like this help us see that the reduction in the use of fossil fuels is health care.”

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