For teams not playing in their conference championship games, it’s the last chance to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular season resume is now complete, and what happens at No. 5 on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final ranking on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are banking on hope and help – and above all, on one more victory. It all started Friday with the Egg Bowl – a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoffs, but also technically in the SEC race.
That’s right, this case is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will affect the playoffs as the day goes on.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week featured its first top-four shakeup when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M — but that may not be so shocking at No. 5 rankings. The Aggies will likely fall four to six behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35-10 drubbing of…Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama) and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is how far Texas A&M will fall since joining No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a notable advantage over Texas Tech in strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee would only drop the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, meaning they would still be able to secure a first-round bye as a No. 4 seed. There will, however, be a lively debate over whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter of which impressed the committee recently by ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, deserve the top seed. The Aggies’ problem is that they should finish top four as an at-large team because they were just eliminated from the SEC title game.
While Texas arguably has the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult them into the top 10 with a three-loss team. Even with a few upsets over Texas, it’s unlikely the Longhorns move past 12th place.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win over rival Purdue, locking up a CFP bid and boosting its chances of retaining a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance to clinch the top spot in Tuesday’s rankings if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If Ohio State loses and Oregon wins, Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses, the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as a Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where its opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared to other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game — win or lose — would increase IU’s record strength by the committee’s metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should maintain its spot as the committee’s best one-loss team after its victory over rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s Oct. 18 win over Ole Miss, along with its triumph at Tennessee and loss to Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ consistency on offense and defense also played well with the committee. Georgia’s first-round berth will only be in question if it finishes second in the SEC with two losses.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will be eliminated from the playoffs at 9-3. The only way for the Yellow Jackets to extend their playoff hopes is to make the ACC Championship Game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win over rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely secured a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round game at home. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if that’s not the case, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty that still lingers around coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the postseason, the selection committee could consider it. The CFP protocol states that the group will consider “other relevant factors such as the unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or that will likely affect its performance in the playoffs.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoffs because Kiffin left for another job, but that could be tarnished by a spot or two if the committee feels the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its record with a 5-7 win over Kansas, but it’s still unlikely to reach the playoffs without multiple upsets from teams above it — especially after being edged out by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP rankings. Even with a win, to reach the Big 12 championship game, Utah still needs Texas Tech to lose and BYU and Arizona State to win. The Utes’ best hope of reaching the CFP still remains as an at-large team.
Getting that deal isn’t inconceivable if a combination of teams two losses above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it will be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to get into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to actually be ranked in the field. This year, the No. 11 and No. 12 teams will be excluded during the seeding process to make way for the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions.
