Weakening the Gulf Stream system could release world chaos

Scientists warn that the Gulf Stream system could stop after 2100, driving extreme winters, drying summers and chaotic precipitation changes.

In scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the Southern Atlantic (AMOC) reversal circulation could completely collapse some time after the year 2100. AMOC, which includes Gulf Stream, is one of the most important systems of oceanic currents on Earth.

A new study involving the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warns that its judgment would greatly reduce the ocean capacity to transport heat to the north. The result would be much drier summers and much harder winters in the northwest of Europe, as well as major changes to precipitation models in the tropics.

“Most Climate Projections Stop at 2100. But some of the standard models of the IPCC – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Have Now Run Centuries Into the Future and Show Very Worrying Results,” Says Sybren Drijfhout from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, The Lead Author of the Study published in Environmental research letters.

“The deep overthrow in the Northern Atlantic slows down considerably 2100 and stops completely in all high -program scenarios, and even in certain intermediate and low broadcast scenarios. This shows that the risk of stopping is more serious than many people think so.”

Ocean conveyor and its tilting point

The Amoc works like a massive transporter strip. Hot tropical waters move north near the surface, while colder water flows and returns south to depth. This circulation maintains the relatively mild European climate and shapes weather conditions around the world.

In new simulations, the critical tipping point occurs when the deep winter convection collapses in the seas Labrador, Imminger and Nordic. The increase in global temperatures reduces the amount of heat that escapes from the ocean in winter because the air is not fresh enough. This weakens the vertical mixture of ocean waters. As a result, the surface remains hot and lighter, which makes it less able to sink and mix with the coldest waters below. This loss of mixture disrupts the Amoc and reduces the flow of hot and salty water moving north.

Self-reinforced feedback loops are intensifying

In the northern regions, surface waters therefore become cooler and less saline, and this reduced salinity makes surface waters even light and less likely to flow. This creates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, triggered by atmospheric warming but perpetuated by weakened currents and a desalination of water.

“In the simulations, the tipping point for the North Atlantic Keys of the North Atlantic is generally occurred in the coming decades, which is very worrying,” explains Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the research department on the analysis of the Pik earth system and co-author of the study. After the switch point, the end of the Amoc becomes inevitable due to self-employment feedback. The heat released by the extreme North Atlantic then falls less than 20% of the current amount, in certain models almost zero, depending on the study.

The main author Drijfhout adds that “recent observations in these deep convection regions are already showing a downward trend in the past five to ten years. This could be variability, but it is consistent with the projections of the models ”.

Emission cuts could further reduce the risk

To achieve these results, the research team analyzed CMIP6 simulations (coupled Model Intercomparone Project), which were used in the latest IPCC assessment report, with prolonged time horizons from 2,300 to 2500. In the nine high -emission simulations, the models evolve in a low and shallow circulation state with the deep closure of the hike; This result is also produced in certain intermediate and low -emission simulations. In any case, this change follows a collapse of the middle of the century of deep convection in the seas of the North Atlantic.

The global consequences and the urgent call

“A drastic weakening and closure of this current ocean system would have serious consequences in the world,” said PIK researcher Rahmstorf. “In models, currents end completely 50 to 100 years after the tilting point violation. But that could well underestimate the risk: these standard models do not include additional fresh water from the loss of ice in Greenland, which would probably push the system even more.

Reference: “Stop the overthrow of the North Atlantic after 2100 after the collapse of the deep mixture in the CMIP6 projections” of Sybren Drijfhout, Joran R Angevaare, Jennifer Mecking, René M van Westen and Stefan Rahmmstorf, August 28, 2025, Environmental research letters.
Two: 10.1088 / 1748-9326 / ADFA3B

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