We could nouxer “ City Killer ” Asteroid 2024 yr4 before it touches the moon – if we act quickly, a new study warns
Scientists are considering the possibility of launching a nuclear weapon in an asteroid that could potentially hit the moon in 2032 – but they say that more research is necessary before promoting this option.
The survey concerns the asteroid 2024 YR4which reached notoriety shortly after his discovery in December 2024 when scientists (working with limited observations) revealed that he had a relatively high chance of having an impact on earth in 2032, Culminating at 3.1%.
This is good news for our planet, but the updated follow -up also shows that the asteroid has a good chance of crashing on the moon – about 4%. A crash of an object of this size, and relatively close to the earth, would certainly certainly have an effect on us.
Threats to astronauts, space vessels
If an asteroid the size of 2024 years crashed in the moon, he would produce “the ejecta” lunar, giving a kick in the regolith – the upper layer of dust and small rocks on the surface – which would considerably increase the micro -metering debris in low terrestrial orbit.
The flow could be up to 1,000 times “above the bottom levels … perhaps threatening astronauts and spacecrafts” because small space rocks can pierce spaceships, space combinations and researchers wrote in the new study, which was Posted on September 15 on the Arxiv preparatory server And has not yet been evaluated by peers.
Although this is a threat to satellites and the international space station (if not Dispos in 2031 as planned), any attempt to diversify the asteroid could create an even higher risk, warned the authors. There remains a great uncertainty as to the exact mass of the asteroid, which means that any attempt to chase it would also be far from being certain. A poorly planned deviation mission could accidentally push the asteroid to the earth, the researchers wrote.
Scientists have an entertainment experience on which to rely: NASA’s dart mission Deviated an asteroid moonThe path of 2022. Dart sent a kinetic impact in the moonlet, called Dimorphos, which slightly modified the path of the small space rock around its parent asteroid, Didymos. But the researchers behind the new study concluded that any attempted diversion of 2024 years “would appear” impractical “because of constraints such as not knowing the mass of the object – and having a very limited window to study the object further before its fly near in 2032.
Just harm us
The researchers rather consider the idea of breaking the asteroid. A dart style spaceship could be sent so as not to move the asteroid but to hit it in pieces, they suggest. This is an unknown concept, but NASA has several years to think about it given the window to launch such a mission between April 2030 and April 2032.
Otherwise, NASA could send a nuclear mission, exploding a nucle propelled by a rocket on or near the asteroid before its approach. This method is also not tested but theoretically possible. There would be a little less time to prepare this mission, but it could be launched between the end of 2029 and the end of 2031, according to the researchers.
The article emphasizes that there is still 96% chance that the asteroid breaks by the moon without problem, but the researchers say this situation as an opportunity to search for a spacecraft with asteroid beetle.
They call on other researchers to provide estimated construction times for spacecrafts and create more conceptions – just in case a more serious threat comes from our planetary district.
