An illustration of an uprising that preceded the French Revolution
Stefano Bianchetti / Corbis via Getty Images
Serious volcanic eruptions and changes in the activity of the sun may have set the ground for some of the most famous rebellions in the world, including the French Revolution.
It has been known for a long time that difficult environmental conditions such as drought, deforestation and extremes of heat and cold can cause social chaos, failing harvests and even disease.
One of the most serious periods of time known during the last millennia, known as Little Ice Age, parts seized of the northern hemisphere, in particular Europe and North America, from 1250 to 1860. During this abnormal cold period, when temperatures dropped on average up to 1.75 ° C and that precipitation fell by half, agriculture was launched in chaos.
David Kaniewski at the University of Toulouse in France and his colleagues have traveled literature to identify 140 rebellions during this interval which were large enough to register in the historic file.
For their study, they compared the recordings of these various social crises with solar activity recordings, volcanic rashes and climate change, as well as oscillations in the price of grain and bread, to see if there was a link between them and an extreme time associated with the small ice period.
“We examined whether the peak disorders were aligned with environmental change and the challenges he poses for companies,” says Kaniewski.
The team found that the particularly cold phases of the small ice age were correlated with significant increases in the number of rebellions.
“We also found that large volcanic eruptions, which temporarily cool the climate, were followed by social chaos at statistically significant levels,” explains Kaniewski. “Sunnspot Records, which follows the activity of the sun and its cycles, has shown that less solar stains, linked to cooler global temperatures, have coincided with more uprisings.”
When temperatures dropped between 0.6 ° C and 0.7 ° C, whether by volcanic activity or a decrease in the number of solar stains, there were 0.72 more rebellions per year on average, with similar results for precipitation reductions.
But the team found the strongest correlation when comparing the number of rebellions or revolutions with the price of wheat and barley. High price increases led to 1.16 additional rebellions per year.
Kaniewski says that when crops failed, famines are looming, prices have increased and people were much more likely to rebel. However, the team also found that certain nations, such as England, which undoubtedly also experienced weather problems during this period, adapted and made crises better than others.
Researchers believe that even if the climate has not directly led to rebellion, environmental conditions have led to cascades of events that have led to food shortages, as evidenced by the increase in cereal prices. This, in turn, could encourage people to rise up against authority.
“The scarcity of food is like a dry forest after a long drought,” says Kaniewski. “When you add political or social grievances, it can trigger the revolt.”
One of the most extreme periods of upheavals followed the eruption of the Laki volcano of Iceland in June 1783, which led to higher levels of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere and had a cooling effect on the climate. The team discovered that after this period, from 1788 to 1798, there was a peak of 1.4 rebellions per year, including the tumult of the French Revolution.
Kaniewski says that understanding the small ice age can offer an overview of the challenges that humanity is faced with future climatic predictions: “Climate change today could be much more disruptive.”
Tim Flannery at the Australian Museum in Sydney, however, says that the link between climate change and rebellion and revolution, as demonstrated in this study, is a question of correlation, no cause.
“It is equally likely that people fall into chaos, migrate, commit suicide or something else for a stressful period, as a revolt start,” says Flannery. “I am not saying that it is bad, but I do not think that it represents a large part of a step forward compared to what we knew before, and there must be a much deeper analysis.”
Jeremy Moss at the University of New South Wales in Sydney says that when you consider the damage that natural people and systems are likely to undergo climate change due to climate change, direct effects are only part of the equation. “Often just as important is to know how and why people and natural systems become vulnerable to these dangers, and what we do in response to such vulnerabilities,” explains Moss.
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