The southern Florida is all the buzz entering a completely Florida confrontation in Miami this weekend, starting 2-0 with upset victories on the classified teams.
On paper, it looks like one of the best starts in the history of the program. But the boxes do not always tell the whole story.
There is more below the surface of these first two victories, and what it reveals could completely change the way you see this team head for hurricanes.
N ° 18 Bulls from southern Florida at n ° 5 Hurricanes de Miami
Saturday, 4.30 p.m., the CW network
Double: Miami -17.5
Silver line: Miami (-800), southern Florida (+500)
Over / Under: 56.5 (o -105, U -115)
Why the start 2-0 of the USF seems better than it is
The USF is 2-0 with victories upset on n ° 25 Boisé State and Florida n ° 13, but the beginning seems better on paper than it is really. Bulls have experienced major games, turnover and opponent errors more than sustainable and sustainable football.
Against Boisse, the USF won 34-7, but the box score tells another story. Boisse has actually had more than first stockings and a controlled possession time. They moved the ball well but lost three escapes who killed chances to score.
The USF struck a few explosive passes, with an average of more than 10 yards per attempt, but only successfully tried 372 yards in total. For me, that said the Bulls are counting on a handful of large games to put points on the board, and when these parts are not there, they have trouble supporting the readers and moving the offensive.
Florida was the same story in a different way. The USF won an 18-16 victory, but Florida injured 11 penalties, a key interception and missed opportunities in the red zone. In the two games, the USF forced four reversals, but has not scored any point of them, which says a lot about their offensive difficulties.
The numbers support him. The USF is struggling to maintain training, is struggling to convert to third place, and the defense is slightly lower than the average. The 2-0 record is real, but domination is not.
Without these errors of the opponent (adjusted wood without Ashton Jeanty and Florida showing pre-season concerns), this could just as easily be a 0-2 team.
Why Miami is different from Boise State and Florida
Miami is not the state of wood or Florida. After a match against Notre Dame, Miami looks like a complete, balanced and disciplined team, which is something that neither the upset victims of the USF could say.
The loss of wood was focused on self -destruction, while the loss of Florida was different but just as disorderly. In the two games, the USF did not dominate from start to finish; They capitalized on errors.
Miami feels different. Carson Beck is in his third year as a starting quarterrier, seeks to bounce back from his injury in 2024 and week 1 launched 472 yards and four affected against Notre Dame, distributing the ball on several weapons, while Mark Fletcher Jr. This offense can beat you with more than one title.
More importantly, they play clean football. Against Notre Dame, Miami had only six penalties and zero turnarounds.
Miami can climb on the ground, finish in the red zone and protect the ball. Unlike the wooden state and Florida, the rods are not likely to put free possessions from the USF or easy score possibilities.
Prediction of bets: less than 56.5 (-115) 
Thanks to two upset victories, the USF is 114th in the offensive success rate and only converts 36% into the third decline, which tells you that Bulls have trouble keeping training in life. Even more revealing, despite forcing four reversals against Boise State and Florida, they did not score any point. Most of their production came from a handful of explosive parts, not a coherent offense.
Miami’s defense is built to close this. Against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes created three bags and an interception. This unit obliges the teams in uncomfortable situations, and this is exactly where the USF fought the most.
Offensively, Miami is balanced and effective. Between Beck’s passes capabilities and the momentum of the construction of ground games, canes can control the pace when they need it. Expect Miami to rely on the race, keep the ball and limit the goods.
Unless the USF connects to several deep levels, the score will be difficult for Bulls. I generally do not play with two -digit broadcasts this big one, so I leaned in Miami -17.5 or pass, but the conviction is under 56.5. I would be surprised if the USF has reached 17 points. How much is Miami will mark.
