UFC Fight Night Rio Experts’ Picks, Best Bets: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira will face compatriot Mateusz Gamrot in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m. ET).

Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) last fought in June in an unsuccessful attempt to regain the title, losing to Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. Oliveira, a Brazilian who has yet to lose in five previous UFC fights in his home country, is No. 3 in the ESPN lightweight rankings.

Ninth-ranked Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC) has won four of his last five fights, most recently a unanimous decision over Ludovit Klein in May.

ESPN MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith provide their predictions on the main event, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight into the value bets available on the fight card.

Light main event

Oliveira is a great opponent for Gamrot. With Gamrot’s pace and wrestling abilities, this is a good match for him, as I don’t think he’s going to get submitted. So he can impose his will, fight, stay out of trouble and wear Oliveira down to make a decision. -your Thomas

I know comparing common opponents doesn’t always work, but Gamrot beat Arman Tsarukyan and Oliveira lost to Tsarukyan, who is the better wrestler. Oliveira has never been one to stop every takedown, and Gamrot has excellent counter grappling. Gamrot is able to hold his own and stay out of trouble. If he wasn’t able to defeat Oliveira, it would be a different story, as I think Gamrot would lose on the feet. But Oliveira won’t be able to stop Gamrot’s struggle, and Gamrot will stay out of submission attempts and just barely outrun Oliveira. –Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of October 9. For the most recent odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Gamrot winner (-105) Stepping up on short notice, Gamrot has a career-changing opportunity against Oliveira in a Fight Night main event. Gamrot has the wrestling and pace to suffocate and frustrate Oliveira, if he can take the fight to the ground early and often. On the feet, Oliveira is the better striker and has punching power, but after a knockout loss in June, I’m not sure his chin can take much more. Oliveira is a submission ace, but he doesn’t usually land submissions, and that’s where I expect him to be for the majority of this fight. I’m taking Gamrot to create a surprise.

Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

Men’s Bantamweight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

Jackson winner (-300): If Jackson can score a victory in Brazil against former UFC flyweight champion Figueiredo, it could be his coming-out party. Figueiredo is coming off a loss to Cory Sandhagen, in which he injured his knee, so a fight against a young, hungry Jackson may not be the friendliest matchup for him upon his return. Look for Jackson to get ahead and use his speed to take down Figueiredo.

Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto

Diniz winner (-130): Unless Pinto can take Diniz out immediately and submit him or hold him down for 15 minutes, it’s hard to imagine he can beat Diniz in a striking battle. Diniz is not only the best striker, he has fought higher level competition and won’t be surprised when his opponent tries to take him down early on. Look for Diniz to defend takedowns early and keep the fight going en route to his fourth UFC victory.

Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Álvarez

Alvarez will win by KO/TKO: Alvarez will be moving up to the 170-pound division, and what an addition he could be. Alvarez is a complete fighter and an incredible striker with knockout power. He faces seasoned veteran Luque in what should be a fun fight – for however long it lasts. Luque will attempt to take down Alvarez, but I don’t see him finding much success, forcing him to stand up and trade blows in hopes of outplaying Alvarez. Ultimately, I think Alvarez’s pressure and power will be too much for Luque, and Alvarez will finish early.