The investigation says is a weekly series bringing together the most important survey trends or data points you need to know, as well as an atmosphere verification on a trend that stimulates policy.
The Trump administration recently launched its most prominent attack on freedom of expression – and it did not work. In fact, new surveys suggest that he turns a lot.
On September 15, the end of the evening host Jimmy Kimmel criticized the response of the Maga movement to the murder of the far -right activist Charlie Kirk. But even it turned out to be unacceptable for the Trump administration, which succeeded under pressure ABC to suspend Kimmel’s show two days later.
Enhards, President Donald Trump required that NBC cancels the late evening programs Hosted by Seth Meyers and Jimmy Fallon, who also made fun of him. The next day he threatened to draw broadcast licenses For networks that cover it critically.
And shortly after, the Approval Approval Note has already been poorly worsened.
It is perhaps the most visible in the medium of survey, as the one Directed by electoral analyst Nate Silver. The day ABC suspended Kimmel, an average of 44.4% of the public approved the work that Trump was doing as president, while an average of 52.2% disapproved, which allowed a net approval of -7.8 percentage points.
But around September 22, when the Kimmel speech struck fever and even some Republicans I couldn’t take behind The president’s crusade against the first amendment, Trump’s approval rating began to slip. Friday morning, he had a clear approval rating of -9.6 points.
In other words, during these few short days of anti-graty speech, Trump’s net approval rating fell 1.8 points. If it doesn’t seem much, know that it is necessary a lot To move an average survey.
A deeper dive in the polls seems to support this. For the surveys that left the field in the week before September 17 – IE, Kimmel’s suspension – the average net approval of Trump was -9.3 points, according to a daily review of Kos de Surveys aggregated by political analyst Mary Radcliffe. (Radcliffe is a former colleague of my 538 years. It is a drop of 2.3 points in about two weeks.
In other words, the Kimmel suspension follows a Trump approval.
Of course, correlation does not equivalent to causality, and it is impossible to know each factor lowering the notation of Trump’s approval. It could be statistical noise, although the surveys are designed to reduce such a thing. It could be the brutality Trump immigration program or his administration Mishandling of his files On the accused, the sexual trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. It could be that Nearly 8 out of 10 voters Now think of the United States in a political crisis. It could be fears around the labor market and Trump’s editorial tariffs, like Silver himself think it’s the case. After all, nothing makes a note of approval as higher prices. Just ask the former president Joe Biden.
Most likely, it is all of that. And more.
And yet it is possible that Trump’s attack on freedom of expression plays a disproportionate role. Kimmel’s suspension was a very publicized event which obtained a large conviction. Inherited media points aptly coveredand even popular right -wing podcasters like Joe Rogan criticized him. Hell, even Ted Cruz did.
Americans through the political spectrum love freedom of expression, and the suspension of Kimmel has attributed the fears about losing it.
Fifty-three percent of voters are pessimistic on freedom of expression Protected in the United States, according to a survey by Quinnipiac university which entered the field the day after Kimmel’s suspension. This is a sharp increase compared to March, while the same survey revealed that only 43% were pessimistic. And in January, only 38% were.
The same survey revealed that Trump with a dark 38% approval rating among voters, Down 2 points from AugustWhen it was 40%. Although this drop is in the margin of error, Trump’s decline in its average survey suggests real movement.
In addition to that, 56% of Americans disapprove of the management of freedom of expression by TrumpIn a survey you carried out after Kimmel’s suspension. And 77% believe that it is probably or certainly a violation of freedom of expression so that the government threatens to revoke the dissemination license of a television network that criticizes it. You know, the very thing that Trump did.
Another New Yougov survey Notes that around 1 out of 5 Americans think that the government has not put ABC pressure to suspend Kimmel – and 2 out of 3 think that the government should not take such a measure.
In our time of the partisan Stark division, these figures suggest that the Trump administration seriously overvalued its hand trying to silence a renowned Trump critic. In fact, his attempts to do so made Kimmel all the more popular.
Updates?
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Despite the Trump administration spit anti-vaccine disinformation and even Writing access For some blows, the vast majority of Americans still want children to receive the photo of measles, mumps and rubella. According to children, seventy percent of children say that children should be required to get the ROR vaccine A new survey From Yougov, while only 16% say they should not be.
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Trump and his team are Death of punishing his perceived enemies After years of lies on the former Biden administration the politically persecuting – and that has twisted his base in the knots. On the one hand, 54% of Republicans say Yougov that Biden ordered his Attorney General to investigate his political opponents, but a plurality of them (38%) approve The idea of such surveys. In other words, for them, it is largely well if Trump does, but it is bad if Biden does it, even if Biden did not do it.
Ambient check
The Trump administration is Prepare to get even more federal workers If the Congress blows its deadline for financing on September 30 and the government stops. However, he has already drawn tens of thousands.
