Melissa will likely train in the Caribbean. Beyond that, there are several scenarios regarding his future next week. Here’s what could happen.
By Caitlin Kaiser and Jonathan Erdman
6 hours ago
The future Mélissa? Chances of development increase
Tropical Storm Melissa may develop in the Caribbean Sea later this week, but its future beyond is unclear, with several possible scenarios.
As we approach the end of October, the tropics are not yet ready to settle in.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area in the Caribbean Sea that is likely to develop, possibly as early as midweek. And it’s a long-running saga that we’ll probably deal with next week.
Area(s) of possible development of the NHC
(The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook are represented by polygons, color-coded according to the likelihood of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.)
Development in the Caribbean
A disturbance known as a tropical wave is currently moving westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center calls it Invest 98L, a way for the NHC to identify systems that might develop, allowing higher-resolution computer models to be run on the disturbance.
(MORE: What is an investment?)
There is a wide area of showers and thunderstorms with this disturbance, with winds of 30 to 40 mph along its northern and eastern flanks.
But the rapid forward speed of the tropical wave and the winds above the surface create wind shear that keeps the system from growing any faster at this time.
Wind shear, area of potential development of the NHC
(Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. Strong wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those attempting to develop. The area of possible development is also shown, as in the previous map.)
However, later this week the disturbance is expected to slow, and that is when tropical development will become more likely.
With the Atlantic basin’s most abundant supply of warm, deep water available for fuel, let’s look at potential scenarios for “future Melissa.”
Thermal content of the oceans
(This map shows not only areas of warm water, but also warm, deep water that is an ingredient for fueling developing and active tropical cyclones.)
Possible scenarios
For now, there appear to be three potential outcomes for what we hope Melissa will be:
- Quick turn north: The system could strengthen into an earlier named storm over the central Caribbean Sea, loop northward and crawl over Hispaniola, before moving sharply northeastward out to sea.
- Trail west to Central America: Rather than curving north, Melissa could continue west across the bathtub-like waters to Central America.
- Later curve northward, potential impacts in the United States: A third scenario is that Melissa takes a later curve northward, early to mid next week. This could potentially impact Cuba, the Bahamas and the United States within the next week.
It is too early to tell which of these scenarios will occur. This could be a long, drawn-out affair that could last until next week.
Check back with us at Weather.com for the latest forecast updates.
Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with undergraduate and graduate degrees in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before beginning her career as a digital meteorologist at Weather.com.
