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After many back and forth for several months, President Donald Trump announced on July 9, 2025 that he planned to take a 50% rate on Brazilian exports to the United States. While the Brazilian authorities, as well as the leaders of most other countries, expected new prices given their centrality at Trump’s economic agenda, the announcement apparently took Brazilian officials off guard, as the commercial negotiations between the two nations were still underway.
The president of Brazil, Lula Da Silva, reacted quickly, declaring that her country could react in kind, if the prices come into force on August 1.
There has been a lot of speculation about the reasons for Trump’s decision and calendar, some spectators noting the proximity of the recent BRICS nations meeting, a group of emerging savings, including Brazil, which had already attracted Trump’s anger. Others argued that it was a protective measure to defend the main American industries, such as steel, which have been faced with continuous difficulties against cheaper products from Brazil.
The clearest answer, however, came from Trump himself.
In a letter to Lula, the American president said that his main complaint with Brazil is in fact the trial that former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro faces the highest court of this country. The former far -right brand is charged for refusing to recognize the result of the last presidential election in October 2022 and to have allegedly conducted an attempted coup against democratic institutions and the rule of law in January 2023. If it was condemned, Bolsonaro and some of its closest associates could incur long prison sentences.
A story of interference
The only economic justification mentioned in Trump’s letter, that of a deficit that his country would face in Brazil, is denied by figures. The United States has undergone coherent surpluses in trade with the South American nation for almost two decades now.
And Steve Bannon, the former adviser to Trump, an active cheerle and main pom-Girl conducted between the Trump and Bolsonaro camp, was even more frank than the American president. In an interview with one of the main information sites in Brazil, he said: “Stop the trial and we will reverse the prices.”
As the history of American American relations American has skillfully demonstrated this, it is far from the first time that Washington has mixed with the region in order to satisfy its own political trends. Indeed, in particular during the Cold War, a multitude of American decision -makers have actively intervened to support friendly right -wing diets or to withdraw otherwise power administrations considered to be unacceptable independent.
It was nevertheless the first time in recent history that the official position of the United States was that a foreign nation had to face severe economic sanctions unless its current government illegally bypassing the constitutional role of the judiciary to stop a major investigation against a person accused of high crimes.
Trump-Bolsonaro: mutual admiration
Of course, Trump’s manifest support for Bolsonaro is not surprising or new. Their relationship of mutual admiration and ideological affinity returns to the first presidential campaign of the latter in 2018, when it was labeled, to a great reciprocal pleasure, the “Trump of the Tropics”.
During the following two years, when their terms coincided (2019-2000), the two men undertook to have a special mutual relationship, but with few consequences – no consecutive bilateral project was implemented.
The two leaders also share the experience of not having obtained a second consecutive term and having supported the derailment of the peaceful transfer of power.
Now that Trump is back in power, Bolsonaro hopes that the American president will come to his rescue.
Seeking to obtain explicit support, the third son of Bolsonaro, Eduardo, member of the lower chamber of the Brazil congress and the most eloquent international voice of his family, took leave of his legislative functions and moved to the United States at the beginning of this year. He did it to put it in the name of his father on the basis of the fallacious argument that Lula is a leftist dictator, that Bolsonaro faces a political motivation and the United States government should act against the Lula administration.
Given Trump’s price opinion and the explicit reasons he gave for this, it seems sure to assume that Eduardo’s actions were paying dividends.
In what direction will Brazil direct?
Like the United States, Brazil is deeply fractured according to the left and right political lines. It is therefore not surprising that local reactions to Trump’s announcement appeared in ideological camps.
Despite the legal trips of their chief, the supporters of Bolsonaro remain very influential in politics, the media and among the important economic fields, such as the agrifood sector. It is not clear if Trump’s decision will be used to help people rally and support Lula and against a case of foreign interference. Lula’s initial statement that Brazil responds in kind was seen favorably among its supporters, although the opposition and many in the media have pinned the blame on Lula not to be able to forge a compromise with the Trump administration.
The main industrialists in the powerful state of Sao Paulo, where the powerful ally of Bolsonaro, Tarcisio de Freitas, serves as governor, will be the first affected by the new prices. But the pain will probably spread to other activities, including in the countryside.
And given that most of the country’s agricultural exports go to China rather than to the United States, the important question is whether these powerful exporters will act pragmatic and work with Lula to enlarge trade with the giant and other Asian countries, or if they will continue to act ideologically and will continue to support Bolsonaro’s Endurant partnership with Trump.
Dialogue was a characteristic of Brazilian diplomacy, and even in the midst of these last animated diplomatic exchanges, Lula reiterated his desire to negotiate. It is not clear, however, if the actions of the administration of Trump in Latin America will be carried out on the basis of rationality and real numbers, or if they will indeed bring back old ideologically motivated behaviors to choose sides in the internal political conflicts of foreign nations. If you consider Trump’s last letter, there are reasons to worry.
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