October was a tough month for the box office, as business was as slow as during the prolonged first-quarter slump in early 2025 and totals for the month finished at $428 million, the lowest unadjusted October total outside of the pandemic since 1998.
This is far from the first time the box office has seen monthly and holiday totals fall to levels not seen since the turn of the century. This year also saw the lowest March totals in 30 years, and Memorial Day Weekend 2024 turned out to be the worst since 1995.
But theater owners aren’t sweating, and that’s because the second half of November is filled with surefire virtual blockbusters. Show sources told TheWrap they expected this slowdown since Lionsgate and Warner Bros.’ “Michael.” “Mortal Kombat II” has been moved from October to May 2026. They have been prepared to endure the crisis due to the juggernauts “Zootopia 2” and “Wicked: For Good” arriving this month.
But it will take a little patience.
Over the next two weeks, Disney/20th Century’s “Predator: Badlands” and Paramount’s “The Running Man” will lead the way with projected opening weekends of at least $25 million each. It’s unlikely that either film will hit $100 million domestically, but they will generate at least some level of business, especially from millennial and Gen-X males who are fans of the original 1987 action vehicles starring Arnold Schwarzenegger.
But the date theaters are really waiting for is Nov. 21, when Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” is expected to begin a boom period that will last through New Year’s weekend. After the first “Wicked” dazzled audiences en route to a $473.7 million domestic run and $756 million worldwide, “For Good” is expecting an opening weekend of at least 150 million, surpassing the $112.5 million launch of its predecessor.
And five days later comes Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which will attempt to match – or at least come close to – last year’s Thanksgiving record of $225.4 million set by “Moana 2.” “Zootopia 2” and “Wicked: For Good” are expected to gross at least $400 million domestically and could gross $500 million depending on the strength of word of mouth and their ability to coexist in the market with each other and with December films like “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
Can “Predator” expand its audience?
For now, we have “Predator: Badlands,” the third film in director Dan Trachtenberg’s deadly creature franchise and his first to hit theaters. It’s currently targeting an opening weekend of $25 million to $29 million when it opens this Friday.
Trachtenberg’s first “Predator” film, “Prey,” was released in 2022 exclusively for streaming. This was due to a deal 20th Century Fox made with HBO before its 2019 acquisition by Disney, which would have put the film’s streaming release on HBO Max if it had been released theatrically. Instead, new owners Disney made “Prey” a Hulu exclusive.
“Prey” was acclaimed by both critics and longtime “Predator” fans for its radically new approach to the franchise, focusing on an 18th-century Comanche warrior named Naru who must defend her tribe against one of the Predators. Trachtenberg’s animated sequel, “Predator: Killer of Killers,” was released on Hulu last summer and builds on the “Prey” concept, following a viking, a samurai and a World War II fighter pilot who are all forced to fight Predators across time.
“Predator: Badlands” sees Trachtenberg once again deviate from the “Predator” formula with a story in which a Predator is the protagonist. The film stars Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi as Dek, a member of a Predator clan who, although fearsome by human standards, is considered a runt by his father.
Determined to prove himself, Dek travels to a distant planet filled with deadly creatures in hopes of killing a monster called Kalisk, considered even by his clan to be “invincible.” Along the way, he gets help from Thia (Elle Fanning), an android created by the Weyland-Yutani Corporation who is the sole survivor of Kalisk’s attack on the corporation’s colony.
For die-hard “Predator” fans, this is right in their wheelhouse. While the Predators were portrayed as protagonists over the instinctively murderous Xenomorphs in the “Alien vs. Predator: Requiem,” Dek is the first Predator that audiences are explicitly meant to support and become invested in.
And if the critics are to be believed, Trachtenberg’s gamble with this franchise formula is once again paying off. Early reviews gave “Predator: Badlands” an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score, with critics praising how the film builds the unexpected relationship between Dek and Thia without making Dek any less scary.
But the nature of the storyline isn’t the only big change that Predator: Badlands brings. It is also the first film in the franchise to carry a PG-13 rating instead of an R.
This means that the action sequences, while intense, won’t be filled with blood like the recent “Alien: Romulus.” On the other hand, the PG-13 rating at least gives “Predator” a chance to introduce itself to younger audiences the same way Paramount’s “Scream” revival made the jump from ’90s teens to Gen Z teens.
Although Trachtenberg has delighted “Predator” enthusiasts, any chance of the franchise having a theatrical future depends on expanding the audience to a new generation. “Badlands” is expected to come out just above the $24.6 million gross of the last “Predator” film released in 2018, which received negative reviews and grossed a modest $160 million worldwide against an $88 million budget.
If “Predator” fans also buy into Trachtenberg’s changes and the softer note, “Badlands” could get the word of mouth it needs to hold its own against “The Running Man” the following week.
“Badlands” and “Running Man” will play a similar role in the market as “Gladiator II” did last year against “Wicked” and “Moana 2,” serving as alternatives to a primarily male contingent not interested in musicals or family animation. “Gladiator II,” out of nostalgia, grossed $172 million domestically.
If these two deals can match that combination, they’ll do their job in helping theaters get out of a rusty month. But it’s going to be a big challenge.
