The Sudanese region rich in oil becomes a new orientation of the war between the armed forces and rivals

The Kordofan region rich in Sudan oil has turned into a first line line between the war between the army and the rival paramilitary forces, while the two parties try to gain the upper hand in a conflict that devastated the vast African state for more than two years.

The attacks that killed hundreds of civilians earlier this month drew attention to the battle for this part of the country.

“The one who controls Kordofan actually controls the country’s oil supply, as well as a huge part of Sudan,” said Amir Imam, analyst at the Oasis Policy Advisory Risk Council at the BBC.

The region is also vital for the landlocked Sudan, because its oil flows through pipelines in Kordofan, before being exported. Thus, it has a direct interest in the stability of Kordofan.

However, the battle for the region – which is made up of three states, with a population of nearly eight million people – has intensified since June, when the army has focused on retirement from the territory of the rapid support forces (RSF) after having carried out significant gains in the previous three months, recovering the capital, Khartoum and in the neighboring state of Gezira, the agricultural hub of Sudan.

Sudan’s military leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, flew to Khartoum’s main airport on July 20, his second visit to the city since his troops led RSF fighters in March.

General Burhan remains based in the eastern city of the Sudan port, suggesting that it is still not confident to return permanently to Khartoum, now a burnt wreck.

The conflict has cost around 150,000 people and heard around 12 million other people from their homes – roughly the equivalent of the population of Tunisia or Belgium.

The RSF had seized Khartoum shortly after the start of the war in April 2023, following a massive fall between Gen Burhan and his then again, the commander of the paramilitary group, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as “Hemedti”.

The RSF helped Burhan organize a coup in 2021 and crush dissent until they turned against each other after General Dagalo resisted his plan to integrate the paramilitary force into the army.

The analyst of the reflection group on the international crisis group, Alan Boswell, told the BBC that the army now wanted to defeat the RSF in Kordofan so that it could push west in the Darfur – the birthplace of the paramilitary group.

On the other hand, the RSF wanted to grasp Kordofan because it would give it “a new dynamic” and put it “at a striking distance from the center of Sudan, including the capital, once again,” said Boswell.

Dr. Suliman Baldo, the director of transparency of Sudan and the political reflection group, told the BBC that he doubted that the army could perceive the RSF defense lines in Kordofan.

He said the majority of RSF fighters came from the great Miseriya ethniya group living in the state of Kordofan Ouest, which borders the Darfur “, and therefore they will fight to protect their own communities.”

Air strikes earlier this month by the western army of Kordofan-including its capital, El-Fla, and the city of Abu Zabad-also upset the local population, he said, adding that it was a “counterproductive policy of collective punishment of the so-called social incubators” of the RSF.

The army still controls the oil fields in the region, but the RSF had threatened to extend the war to Heglig producing oil in southern Kordofan, near the border with South Sudan, if the air bombardment did not stop.

“If the army’s aviation returns and bombes citizens of the state of West Kordofan, we will strike and close Heglig oil and kill engineers,” said Awadallah Aliyan, the Civil Administration of the RSF in the State, was quoted by Sudan Tribune News Site after having visited the Aittrike market in El-Fula.

The United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs Coordination (OCHA) said that strikes on El-Fula and Abu Zabad, including in school refuge families, would have killed more than 20 people.

The OCHA has condemned attacks, claiming that civilians and civilian buildings – including schools, houses and shelters – should never be targeted, and that war groups should respect international humanitarian law.

The RSF was also accused of having targeted civilians.

The United Nations Children’s Agency (UNICEF) said that more than 450 civilians – including 24 boys, 11 girls and two pregnant women – were reportedly killed in recent attacks in the Bara region in the north of Kordofan and the villages of Shag Alnom and Hilat Hamid.

“These attacks are an outrage,” said the agency, adding that “they represent a terrifying escalation of violence” and a “complete contempt for human life”.

The US-based humanitarian research laboratory, which has monitored the conflict, said that an analysis of Shag Alnom satellite images was “revealing intentional fire attacks”.

The group of rights of emergency lawyers said that many of the more than 200 victims “had been burned to death at home or drawn.”

The fears increase that the number of civilian deaths can worsen as a result of reports that the RSF makes fun of an offensive to capture El-Obeid, the state capital of North Kordofan.

The city of Umm Sumaima has changed hands several times in recent weeks.

“This is the last defense post for the Armed Forces of Sudan before El-Obeid,” said Dr. Baldo.

Imam said that taking control of UMM Sumaima would allow the RSF besieging the army, which has a base in El-Obeid, while the army wanted to break through to create a new supply route to rearrange its soldiers in other parts of Kordofan.

With the high issues, the Battle for Kordofan – which covers around 390,000 km2 (150,000 miles m²) – should be long and extended.

“Whether he will decide whether or not the winner of the war is to be debated, but it will certainly be a seismic change,” said Mr. Imam.

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