Anthony Davis is No. 2 on the Fanspo NBA trade machine’s list of trending players, but I don’t recommend trying to offer him realistic deals. It’s a frustrating exercise, and chances are it will leave you exhausted.
In theory, Davis’ situation should be simple: He turns 33 in March and the Dallas Mavericks aren’t poised to succeed on his schedule. Both sides would be better off with a trade that sends him to a win-now team in exchange for a package of young players and draft picks.
All experts agree, however, that the Mavericks can’t expect anyone to give up that much for Davis. It doesn’t matter that he was the centerpiece of the Luka Dončić trade less than 10 months ago, and it doesn’t matter that he made the All-NBA Second Team 17 months ago. “There’s not a lot of teams lining up” to acquire Davis, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps said on Monday’s episode of Hoop Collective. Immediately after Nico Harrison’s firing, Zach Lowe of The Ringer said the difference between what the Mavs gave up for Davis and what they ultimately get for him “will set the world record for the largest delta trade return for a single player in the history of professional sports.”
The big problem isn’t that Davis arrived at training camp well above his normal playing weight. It’s also not that he strained his calf a week into the regular season. It’s his contract.
Davis makes $54.1 million this season, is owed $58.5 million next season and has a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28, the season in which he turns 35. This August, he will be able to sign an extension that will pay him up to $275 million over four years and up to $76 million in 2030-31, the season in which he will be 38 years old.
The first hurdle is finding a team that is mechanically capable of putting together a business package. This front office doesn’t just need to believe it’s one front away from championship contention; he has to believe he’s one step away from competing for the championship, even after factoring in the loss of the players he trades. The salaries of these players for 2025-2026 must total at least $43.1 million, and this team’s post-trade payroll cannot exceed the first apron.
The second hurdle is finding a team that isn’t afraid of what they’ll have to pay Davis down the road. He doesn’t necessarily have to be willing to give him a maximum four-year extension next summer, but he does have to be confident he can extend him in a more team-friendly deal or be comfortable with Davis either hitting free agency in 2027 or picking up his 2027-28 option. Negotiating with future Hall of Famers in their mid-30s can be difficult.
And these obstacles represent only one side of the equation. Let’s say Davis returns to face his old buddies in Los Angeles on Friday, plays at an All-NBA level over the next few weeks and motivates a few teams to try to trade for him. Will these hypothetical suitors be willing – or even have the ability – to trade multiple first-round picks for him? If not, will the Mavericks be interested in the young players on the table? It’s easy to say the Mavs “should” trade Davis, but I’ve yet to see a fake trade involving him that seems both plausible and obvious to them. It is not clear what bar must be crossed for them to find an acceptable offer.
If this all sounds familiar, that’s because it’s essentially the same story we saw with a number of stars in the latest NBA collective bargaining agreement. There was no solid trade market for Jimmy Butler, and the Miami Heat ended up accepting a package consisting of Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Kyle Anderson, a 2025 first-round pick (which landed at No. 20 and turned into Kasparas Jakučionis) in exchange for Butler, Josh Richardson, and two second-round picks. The Phoenix Suns traded Kevin Durant for a fraction of what they gave up to get him. The trade that ended Brandon Ingram’s tenure with the New Orleans Pelicans wasn’t strictly a pay cut — they got a protected first-round draft pick — but it sure felt a lot like a pay cut, right?
In Jake Fischer’s latest newsletter at The Stein Line, he writes that the Charlotte Hornets aren’t interested in moving LaMelo Ball in part because they are “unlikely to get the kind of deals for Ball that they were hoping for,” which he describes as “somewhat reminiscent of the situation Anthony Davis is facing in Dallas.” He also writes that the Sacramento Kings are “unlikely to bring in a significant haul” for Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan. All of these players are former All-Stars, and it’s not like the entire league has decided they’re bad. DeRozan, however, is the only one making less than $38 million this season, and in this landscape, acquiring one of them is complicated.
Generally speaking, good teams don’t look for complicated. They don’t want to blow up what’s working, reorient everything in the middle of a season, or find themselves in salary cap hell in a few years. As trade season approaches — it unofficially begins Dec. 15, the day most players who signed new contracts last summer will be eligible to be traded — big names like Davis will certainly attract the most attention, but they won’t be the ones with the most suitors.
If you’re a buyer, your ideal target is probably a younger player who complements your core players on both ends, can defend multiple positions, doesn’t need tons of touches, and has a relatively cheap contract. That’s why the only player ahead of Davis on Fanspo’s NBA trading machine’s trending list is a fourth-year guard making $2.3 million this season: Keon Ellis of the Kings. According to The Stein Line, more than half the league called about him.
