The hottest name in fantastic football? Treveyon Henderson. Can it be up to the media threshing?

Fantastic football pre-season media football can be a nasty seducer. Try as you can, it is really difficult to stay impermeable to the reports of hyperbolic players who throw you tirelessly as a storm event off the north shore of Hawaii. Upon entering every summer, I tell myself to ignore the noise and remain firm at logical and rational thought. But try as I could, I must admit that I was infected by Treveyon Henderson Mania.

Henderson is perhaps the king of 2025 pre-season pouffier. He was steamed in the mid-1930s in fantastic projects at the end of August thanks to certain sparkling events of his talent during the pre-season matches and the adulation that accompanies him from the fantastic community on these performances. In the recent article by Michael Salfino on the biggest pre-season ADP elevators, he had this to say on Henderson:

“They are already working on his bust for Canton after his return from TD to pre-season. I am shocked that the new price is only 38.6 (overall), frankly. People write Henderson in the second round. I do not receive media threshing, although I always try to fade media threshing and Henderson can be a cow of bell? fire.”

Honestly, I shared the feeling of Salfino for most of the summer. But, the more I envisaged Henderson, going more and more from his last ADP through the logical objective, I have in fact become more a buyer than a seller.

The big question of Salfino, and mine, is “Henderson must be a bell cow to deliver a proportional return on investment at its current position price (RB15)?”

With an elite escape capacity and a first -level game curriculum vitae (both as a receiver and protector of the pass), Henderson obtains a lot of comps in Jahmyr Gibbs, which was not a cow when he finished RB9 in PPR marking his recruit season with Detroit – The partner of Backfield David Montgommery at Gibbs ’15 .6. It is true that the Lions had a better offensive infrastructure with which we expect Henderson. But can we expect Henderson to get a touch level similar to that of the Gibbs recruit season? And, if he does, what does a reasonable production line look like for Henderson?

To answer the question of the keys, let’s start with the expectations of our own Jake Siere. He has Henderson below for 181 rushes and 51 receptions. Interesting, because the inaugural season of Gibbs resulted in 182 worms and 52 catches. I see you, Jake! Okay, what about Mike Clay d’Espn? Even more optimistic at 225 races and 43 catches (267 keys). Pro Football Focus (PFF)? On the light side, at 164 transports and 35 receptions (199 keys). Okay, how about another – Yahoo? 199 races and 40 receptions (239 keys).

Ok, three of these four projections checked Henderson in less than 240 keys. So, with something less than 240 keys, what will take for Henderson to deliver a top 15 RB campaign? Looking at the FFTODAY PPR score in the last 24 seasons dating from 2001, the RB15 has scored 213.8 PPR points on average. Last season was an abnormally high 245.6 points (Chuba Hubbard), the second highest RB15 finish of this period – 256.1 (Duce Staley in 2002) was the RB15 high water brand. The lowest RB15 total since 2001 took place in 2015 (188.1, Demarco Murray). In fact, it was a period of drought for production RB15, 2014-2017, delivering an RB15 average of 194.4 PPR points. In the past five seasons, the average RB15 finish has been 217.4, which aligns quite closely with the entire 24 -year brand of 213.8 despite the year of the point of 2024. Thus, 213.8 is a good target number for Henderson. If he produced this return, he would at least be about to justify his classification.

So, let’s seek recruit runners who have touched the ball 239 times or less in the past 24 years and who has also scored 213.8 fantastic points. This has occurred eight times during this period – an average of once every three seasons. But seven of these eight runners have accomplished this feat in the past 12 seasons, a rate of once every 1.7 seasons. Let’s take a look at our RBS poster so that Henderson imitates:

As you can see, there are several skin ways this RB15 cat, but the average numbers for the backs that managed this level of production on the required limited workload are roughly like this: 210 keys, 772.5 advanced yards, 54.5 receptions, 494 reception yards, 10 td.

If I look for the ball carrier who gives me the most hope for Henderson’s prospects in this mixture, it’s Giovani Bernard. Here are some similarities between the two runners:

• Bernard was the 37th choice of the NFL 2013 draft; Henderson was the 38th choice in 2024 NFL Draft
• Bernard was listed at 5 feet 9 inches and 205 pounds; Henderson is listed at 5 feet 10 inches, 202 pounds
• The two were welcomed for the protection against passes and the reception of skills leaving college
• Bernard has manipulated the short side of the ball calling platoon as a recruit, yielding 220 worn and 7 precipitating TDS to (former patriot!) Benjarvis Green -Ellis, who finished as RB40 – about the place where Rhamondre Stevenson is in the current ADP.

Bernard was RB13 despite only 170 races and less two -digit TDs (8). He was propelled by his reception work, because his 32.1 reception yards per game ranked third among this crew. If Henderson will finish less than 200 races, he will probably need 50 catches to the north to have a chance to return his recovery value. After all, you can’t expect it to spin the needle as David Johnson did, finishing RB8 as a recruit despite only 161 keys.

So, with regard to these backward receptions. Henderson’s landing point must be considered idyllic in terms of passenger game ceiling. In 18 seasons, calling for shots for an offense of the NFL, whether as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, the leading receiver in the position of ball carrier has an average of 50 receptions. And when he was able to find a RB particularly followed in the passage game, he used it in the handle. If you have not guessed it, I am talking about the fantastic legend James White, who had a four -year race with McDaniels from 2016 to 2019 in which he was on average 68.8 receptions and had an RB7 finish in 2018 with only 181 keys (87 catches) and an RB19 finish in 2019 on only 139 keys (72 catches).

Thus, the path to RB15 seems to be achievable for Henderson given its profile and its probable role for the Patriots. Of course, like any ball carrier in fantastic football, the best capacity is availability. On the eight runners listed in the graph above, they all played at least 15 games, and you could point to the top of this article to find out where Salfino threw asspersions at the sustainability of Henderson – “I never worked for him for him health at Ohio State on Saturday …”, but I watch his four -year career, and I see a kick for a “three. Nurse for a nurse for a nurse for a nurse of the doe, and I called a boost “three like a June for a nurse for a nurse for a nurse for a” kick to a brothel like a tuna for a nurse with a nurse of the tuna Notre Dame Player and five in the second year for a broken foot. 55 possible games (85%) and has an average of 14.2 keys in these competitions.

Let’s say he plays 15 games (88%) in the coming season and on average 14 keys. Call it 10 races and, with the lack of reception of talents in New England, let’s say four catches per game, which go back to 150 races and 60 catches. If on average 4.5 yards per carrying and 8.0 yards per capture, it is 675 yards on the ground and 480 reception yards. For reference, in 2024, there were 17 RBS who have an average of more than 8 yards per HIC (min. 30 captures), 19 RBS which have an average of 4.5 yards per race (min. 100 rushes) and six RB which accomplished both (including the recruit of last year Bucky Irving). These are therefore reasonable references to reach Henderson. And fix its total TD to a modest 7. In PPR, which takes place at 217.5 points – it’s 0.1 better than the average RB15 in the last five seasons. During 15 of the last 24 seasons, this has returned at least one RB15 value.

And that, my friends, is I considering a logical explanation and in the back of the way in which Treveyon Henderson offers his media fantastic football in 2025. He is my RB15, and in my three projects at 12 teams to come now and the kick-off of the season, I will accept it easily if available in the round 4.

(Photo of Treveyon Henderson: Brad Repel-Imagn Images)