The Bears’ offense is humming under Ben Johnson, and it’s not just because of the development of Caleb Williams

The Chicago Bears are on pace to be a top 10 offense in the NFL this season. And he could get closer to No. 1!

I know. These sentences seem incorrect. Or I seem to be missing a caveat or a starting point. But it’s true.

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The Bears under head coach Ben Johnson have delivered consistent and consistently explosive performances this season. They are currently scoring 2.26 points per drive, the highest number for a Bears offense since at least 2002, and they rank 11th this season in EPA per play (seventh in rushing, 11th in passing) and have generated the most EPA per play by a Bears offense since 2013.

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Caleb Williams’ development (and how long he holds onto the ball) gets the most attention whenever the Bears are discussed on the national stage, but what this entire offense is becoming, especially the running game, is a dangerous unit that takes it to defenses at every turn.

Caleb Williams looks comfortable and common complaints against him are due to the design of the offense

Johnson craves explosives. In every interview he talks about it and he practices what he preaches. The Bears’ play-action concepts are designed to look for big chunk plays. And Williams, who preferred to work outside in college and as a freshman, has begun to flourish as he becomes more and more comfortable with play-action concepts. He reads ups and downs in the middle of the field, lays up balls more consistently and lowers throw RPMs, and has excellent ball placement moments away from defenders (the Week 11 Vikings game was a great example). This is very important in raising the ceiling of what this passing game can be, especially one that utilizes play action at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season.

The Bears are tied for sixth in explosive success rate this season (with Johnson’s former team, the Lions, rightfully so). The offense requires Williams to be aggressive, and he stands in the pocket and finds answers with increasing confidence and consistency.

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There are some doubts about Williams’ completion rate, but that’s the design of this offense. There aren’t a ton of goodies in there. Sure, the screen passes are scattered, but the entire plane isn’t built from fast hitters, bubbles, and flat routes. Johnson is comfortable running a 20-yard gain that he’s made half the time, instead of stacking multiple 4-6 yard gains in a row. And Williams finds plays in structure, while also creating his Garrincha-like moments to make loose defenders miss in the pocket. (A great stat from Next Gen Stats: The Bears have allowed 26 unblocked pressures this season. Williams hasn’t had a single sack on those 26 unblocked pressures.)

There is a narrative that Williams holds the ball too long that is simply unfounded. Offensive plays are designed that he holds the ball for a long time, which is logical; it takes longer to attack down the field, especially for an offense that uses a high rate of play action under center. Williams also enters create mode for good reason, whether it’s making an open defender miss or because a receiver isn’t getting open. So while Williams has the highest time to throw in the NFL this year, he’s also being knocked down (hit or sacked) on just 6.4% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL this year and the fifth-lowest rate by an offense since 2019, the furthest back TruMedia’s knockdown data goes back.

Here’s a graph to show the hilarious contrast between Williams’ throwing time and the number of times he’s hit. That bottom red dot represents the Bears this season among NFL offenses since 2019. He really is like a matador there.

And despite being an aggressive passing attack, the Bears have a turnover rate of just 0.9 percent this year and Williams has thrown an interception on just 1.2 percent of his attempts. An Aaron Rodgers brand.

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This year’s 4.8% sack rate allowed is the lowest ever by a Bears offense (and less than half of last year’s 11.8%), which is attributed to improved offensive line play and Williams’ playmaking and comfort in the offense. A winning combination of looking for explosives but not allowing the defense to generate too many.

It’s not just Williams becoming more comfortable on offense, it’s palpable how all of Chicago’s young players have become more comfortable as well. The Bears have started using more moves and changes since their bye week in Week 5. There are still too many procedural penalties on this offense like false starts and illegal formations (their 6.6% penalty rate per snap is bottom 10), but that has improved since their bye week as the learning curve has become less steep for an offense that is wordy and mentally demands a lot from its players when it comes to assignments, formations and possible game changes before the snap.

Williams and the operation as a whole attract the most attention. But explosiveness develops from the running game.

The Bears’ explosive running game fuels everything, and everyone bought in

The Bears offense has the most explosive plays in the NFL this season (87) and currently ranks second in explosive play rate (runs that gain 12 yards or more, passes that gain 16 yards or more). As the offensive line solidified and Chicago’s coaches became more comfortable with their players’ skills, the big plays began to intensify each week, and their explosive play rating of 13.4% is the highest for a Bears offense since at least 2002.

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This isn’t your dad’s Bears offense.

Running backs have gained 12 or more yards on 9.2% of their carries this year (which ranks fourth) and are currently first in rushing success rate in the entire NFL with a whopping 46.7%, which is by far the best for a Bears offense since at least 2002. In fact, since 2013, five of the Bears’ best 11 games in rushing success rate have come this season, and six of their top 16 since 2002. Meanwhile, 52 percent of the Bears’ runs allow their running backs to gain 4 yards or more, the second-highest rate in the NFL this season.

It’s currently the most efficient running game in the NFL, and arguably the best Bears offense of this millennium, if not longer, that can also generate big gains with regularity. And they’re doing it with D’Andre Swift — a running back with what I’ll call “questionable” vision as a runner — and a seventh-round rookie in Kyle Monangai.

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Chicago’s reworked offensive line is starting to make an impact. Joe Thuney is still a more positive player at guard, with his toughness in pass protection creating space in the pocket and making an impact as a run blocker. The Bears have made the second-most zone runs this year (per FTN), which fits perfectly with new center Drew Dalman’s skillset. (Fittingly, Dalman’s former team, the Atlanta Falcons, had the most zone runs this year.) Jonah Jackson had a resurgence year as a powerful run blocker and Darnell Wright took a big step forward this year and is knocking on the door of a Pro Bowl bid. Even former undrafted free agent Theo Benedet has been pretty good as a run blocker after taking over the left tackle position (although more inconsistent as a pass protector). The Bears lead the NFL this year in yards before contact per carry this year with 2.07, the first time they have gone 2 yards in over a decade (2014).

Not only do Johnson and offensive line coach Dan Roushar shape their offense to fit their blockers, but they also run plays that suit their rushers. Swift is a good athlete who can struggle to read plays between the tackles, so the Bears started working more runs to the outside with throw zone plays and dropback concepts like this one against the Giants:

You don’t get those big plays without auxiliary blocking from the skill position group. And that’s another element of what Johnson and Roushar have done with the Bears’ offense: total buy-in from everyone involved.

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Tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland are both supplemental blockers who give Johnson versatility in calling running plays, opening up opportunities on the outside, with Loveland also starting to shine more and more as a receiver. (It has “star” written all over it). Rome Odunze, in addition to being a very good young all-around receiver, is a big, strong player who is a willing blocker. He’ll catch a first down and on the next play, line up inside and take on the safeties and linebackers as a blocker.

Even players like rookie Luther Burden III, who is starting to perform better as a receiver as he continues to fine-tune his details, has had highlights as a blocker. Like that third-down run designed with DJ Moore in the backfield against the Vikings, where Burden had to separate from outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel at the point of attack and more than held his own.

Johnson loves gadget plays, but there aren’t a lot of gadgets in this offense. The Bears are lining up under center on 58.6 percent of their first snaps this year, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. (Their formation numbers are very similar to the Rams’ this year.) The running game stems from movement in these looks, and the Bears rely on play-action concepts to generate explosives through the air. They are hesitant to run a very fast play, instead using the running game to attack defenses underneath and the passing game to create space downfield.

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The Bears currently lead the NFC North. Their defense is still a work in progress that should improve as the Bears get healthier on the back end. There was SO numerous injuries to the defensive back for this team. (Also a note: be sure to check out young edge defender Austin Booker. He has the chance to be a very good player and has really shined since returning from injury.)

While this Bears offense and Williams aren’t perfect, the early returns under Johnson have been very encouraging. They are currently knocking on the door of the top 10, and I would say they are already there. They may even soon be labeled with the dreaded “E” word (elite). The Bears’ running game is already there, and their quarterback could get there sooner rather than later, too.