Cnn
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Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema decided to shake the political world on Friday by becoming independent. The former democrat is still in Caucus with the party in the Senate, so the Caucus Democrat has still 51 members. Now, instead of 49 democrats and two independents in their ranks, the Caucus has 48 democrats and three independents.
But this simple mathematics hides a more obscured image for Democrats and for Sinema itself. Sinema’s interests are no longer necessarily the best interest of Democrats for the next congress, and the 2024 Senate card has become even more complicated for Democrats with Sinema’s decision.
To be clear, Sinema has always been a thorn on the side of the Democrats during his stay at the Congress. Over the past two years, Democrats have almost always made sure that any bill or appointment had the support of Sinema to have a chance to pass. This is the calculation when you only have 50 seats in the Senate in a 100 -seat room. Many bills and appointments have never been voted without the support of Sinema and Manchin.
From 2013 (Sinema’s first mandate at Congress) to 2020, Sinema voted against his party more than almost any other member of the Congress. It remained with the party around 69% of the time on votes where at least half of the Democrats voted differently from half of the Republicans. The average democrat voted with their party around 90% of the time on these votes.
It is entirely possible that the percentage of Sinema to stick to the party now decreases that it is independent. Consider the example of former senator Joe Lieberman. The long -standing democrat won re -election as a third -party candidate in 2006, after losing the Democratic primary to a left challenger (the Governor of Connecticut now quite moderate Ned Lamont)
Compared to the average democrat of the Senate, Lieberman voted with the party 10 points less after having become independent than in his last mandate as a democrat. If this happens with Sinema, she will become even more conservative than Joe Manchin by Virginie-Western (the most conservative member of the Democratic Caucus).
This would make sense because the incentive structure is now very different for Sinema. Before a re -election campaign in 2024, she no longer has to worry about winning a democratic primary. Sinema must be concerned about the construction of a coalition of democrats, self -employed and republicans. It is much more difficult to do if you are considered too liberal.
Indeed, the great reason why Sinema has become independent is that it would have been very difficult to win a democratic primary. Its approval rating among the Democrats of Arizona in an autumn 2022 survey, these was only 25%. A certain number of democrats (for example, the representative Ruben Gallego and the representative Greg Stanton) were already in line to potentially challenge it in primary.
One question is now whether Sinema’s decision to become independent will dissuade some of these Democrats from running. The idea being that Sinema is always caucus with the Democrats, and the Democrats will not want to divide the Democratic vote during a general election allowing a republican to win in a purple state like Arizona.
It is an interesting bet of Sinema. After all, the Democrats generally do not direct a candidate against the independent senator Bernie Sanders in Vermont. Democrats who present themselves against the independent senator Angus King in Maine did not have ground during the last elections. Remember that Lieberman aforementioned has won as a third -party candidate.
However, the electoral mathematical structure was and is completely different in these circumstances. Sanders would not attract a left -wing democrat challenger because it is already so progressive. Lieberman declared his third party after the primary, so the Republicans did not have time to find a well -known challenger. The Republicans also knew that Lieberman, who was an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, was probably the best they could hope in the deeply democratic state of Connecticut.
This leaves the example of the king. King, like Sinema, is moderate of a deeply blue or red state. There is just a problem for Sinema in this analogy: King is popular. He had previously won the governor twice as an independent and almost always sported with high favorites.
Sinema is not at all popular. The CES survey obtained its approval rating below its disapproval rating with the Democrats, the self -employed and the Republicans in Arizona. Sinema’s overall approval was 25% on a 58% disapproval rating. Other polls are not as disastrous for Sinema, but the average of all this makes it firmly more unpopular than popular.
In other words, the current Sinema figures will probably not be afraid of many Challengers of the Democratic or Republican team. In addition, there is no reason for the Democrats to give in the field to Sinema, as this would prevent a republican from winning. It is not at all clear that Sinema can win as an independent.
What Sinema’s decision has accomplished is that it has made electoral mathematics much more complicated in Arizona and therefore on a national scale. Having two people in the race that goes to the Caucus with the Democratic Party probably makes more difficult for the Democrats to win.
A disturbing potential example for Democrats in a purple state (at least then) was the 2010 Florida Senate race. Then, the Republican Governor Charlie Crist decided to present himself as independent after he became clear that he would not beat the most conservative Republican Marco Rubio in a republican primary. Crist, who said he would be caucus with the Democrats, divided the democratic vote with the representative of the time Kendrick Meek and Rubio won a victory.
I must emphasize that the Democrats certainly have a chance. The 1968 Alaska Senate race, for example, presented two Democrats (Mike Gravel then Senator Ernest Gruening as writing). Gravel has won in the state that Republican Richard Nixon also worn by a few points.
In 2024, Arizona Republicans could appoint an extreme candidate who is flameing. They have just lost all major races across the state level in 2022 because of whom they named.
Do not reject the possibility that Sinema can win as Harry Byrd in the 1970 Virginia Senate elections when the two parties appointed candidates. Perhaps voters will like the new independent registration of Sinema.
Sinema was also able to meet the flame in the general elections without a big party supports her as Gruening in 1968, Senator Jacob Javits in the race of the New York Senate in 1980.
We just don’t know.
That said, Democrats already have a difficult card in 2024. Depending on the Democrats win the presidency (and have a democratic vice-president who can break the ties of the Senate), they can afford to lose zero against a siege in the Senate and maintain a majority.
The vast majority, 23 of the 34, the senators to re -elect in 2024 Caucus with the Democrats. An abnormally significant number (7) represent the republican of the Donald Trump states has won at least once. This includes Arizona.
With the rupture of Sinema with the Democratic Party, the road is, if nothing else, shorter for the Democrats.
