Tennessee special election pits Democrat Behn against Republican Van Epps

We’ll find out Wednesday morning whether a special election in Tennessee is truly a referendum on country music, pedal taverns and singles.

Or whether we can divine deeper political meaning from the special election results in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.

Democrat Aftyn Behn is trying to tip the scales in her party’s favor in a district that President Trump won by about 20 points and former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., won by a similar percentage last fall.

Behn faces GOPer Matt Van Epps. It is a Republican district. But political observers are watching the race to assess the potential weakness of President Trump, the weakness of the Trump coalition, problems with the Republican brand or the first signs of a possible blue wave in the 2026 midterms.

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It was Behn who proclaimed she abhorred Nashville several years ago. “I hate single people, I hate pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate everything that makes Nashville apparently a ‘hip town,'” Behn complained.

About all Behn left out in his animosity toward Music City was criticism of The Grand Ole Opry, Hot Chicken and Goo Goo Clusters. But if voters welcome Behn on Tuesday, Republicans will face a different kind of group. A Behn victory could signal major problems for Republicans and President Trump as the midterm elections approach.

Behn is referred to as “Tennessee’s AOC,” a reference to progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Republicans have been quick to boomerang against Behn, suggesting that she is out of sync with the district, that she leans too far to the left and that she is closer to the liberal values ​​of New York or Los Angeles than Nashville. Republicans think Behn just isn’t a good fit for Nashville. Kind of like Bad Bunny performing at the Ryman Auditorium.

“It shouldn’t even be close. But it is,” Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., mused on Fox.

The Republicans are therefore investing money to protect their seats. Democrats are investing money to steal the seat. If Democrats pull off the upset, the party is expected to uproot the goal posts at FirstBank Stadium in downtown Nashville and throw them into the Cumberland River. Kind of what Vanderbilt fans did last year when the Commodores upset number one Alabama.

Let’s explore what a Behn victory could mean for Republicans. This could indicate that voters are growing tired of President Trump. Or that the GOP brand is toxic. Or maybe it’s a continuation of a trend that Democrats benefited from this fall: near-resounding victories for New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger.

But there is a downside for Democrats. Yes. They can overturn the seat. But a victory can also show that the party leans more to the left. It would be hard to argue with success if Behn wins, regardless of his progressive leanings. But it could give other liberals the idea that they could win in other red or purple districts. This could work against Democrats – especially since all Republicans except President Trump – have highlighted the left-wing policies of New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

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Democrats will likely need to run more centrist candidates in purple areas to regain control of the House. A Behn victory could open the floodgates for a host of progressive candidates in competitive House districts nationwide. Behn’s message — or Ocasio-Cortez’s or Mamdani’s — won’t work in most places where Democrats need to succeed in taking control of the House.

But what would happen if the Republicans held the seat and Van Epps won?

It probably depends on how much.

Yes, there were five special elections in 2017 – the first year President Trump was in office – that Democrats made competitive. Everyone was closer than they should have been. But Democrats won none. Yet astute political observers have suggested that there is unpopularity with the president and the Republican Party agenda. Democrats won 41 seats and took control of the House in the 2018 midterms.

So even if Van Epps wins, look at the margin. And if Behn wins, see if Republicans downplay this because it was a special election and the usual electorate just doesn’t turn out in special elections. Especially between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

If Republicans hold the seat, the Republican Party will argue that this is a rejection of a leftist like Behn and someone who was out of step. They will also suggest that this is a GOP seat and that Republicans should win anyway. That’s what happened earlier this year, when there was consternation ahead of two special elections in Florida. But Reps. Randy Fine, R-Fla., and Jimmy Patronis, R-Fla., both won in March.

If Van Epps wins, we will still have to pay attention to the margin. The seat, last held by former Rep. Mark Green, lost more than 20% to President Trump in 2024. (Nicole Hester/Tennessee Network/USA TODAY via Imagn Images)

Here’s another factor worth watching: the message the press and political observers draw from the election results. After all, special elections are always special. It is natural for analysts and journalists to look for particular meanings or indicators in these competitions. This was the case in off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York. Sometimes these observations are correct. Other times they don’t mean anything. On the contrary, there is a tendency to over-emphasize the results of these competitions. These are moments in time. A bit like listening to a few bars of a song. Maybe that tells you something about the song. Maybe not.

House Republicans may panic if Behn wins. There is a lot of discontent among Republicans. Some are frustrated with how their leaders have handled the government shutdown. And others could follow Mark Green and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and get out early.

This is a fragile time for House Republicans. That’s one reason why flipping that seat might mean a little more.

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Yet flipping seats in House special elections is rare. Former Rep. Don Cazayoux, a Los Angeles Democrat, won a special election in a red Louisiana district in 2008 after the resignation of former Rep. Richard Baker, a Los Angeles Democrat. But current Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., then won that seat in the general election and served in the House before moving to the Senate.

Former Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, flipped the seat held by former Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, in 2022. But she lost her re-election bid this fall.

Former Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif., resigned just months after taking office. Garcia held the seat until Rep. George Whitesides, Democrat of California, defeated him a year ago.

Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, won a special election in Hawaii in 2010 against two Democrats — former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii. But the Democrats regained their seat in 2012.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a 2022 special election to flip Alaska’s at-large district from red to blue after the death of the late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska. Young held this seat for nearly 50 years. But Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, defeated Peltola last year.

Just because seats are won in special electoral upsets does not mean they go permanently to the other party. Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska, who unseated his Democratic predecessor, former Rep. Mary Peltola — herself a special election winner — is a prime example. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

In short, even if someone returns a seat, it is rare that they keep that seat for long. Often only during the next regular elections.

So a word of caution when assessing the election results Tuesday evening. If Republicans hold the seat, that’s to be expected. If Democrats flip their seats, some will proclaim it’s the second coming of the Music City miracle.

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But frankly, that’s probably not the case.