We start on Sunday evening football with a match between two of the most electric teams in the NFL. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will go to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. This is the type of match that we could see later in the AFC championship match.
In fact, there is a major factor on the reason why I lean in one way or the other in this game: the location.
These two teams were considerably better at home last season. The Bills were 8-0 at home against 5-4 on the road. They were also 2-0 at home in playoffs before losing a match on the road against the Chiefs of Kansas City.
The Ravens displayed a 7-2 sheet in Baltimore last season. They had only 6-4 on the road, including a defeat against the Bills in the playoffs.
These recordings are reference numbers that do not really give us a ton of information. Predictive measures show us more the same thing about the home / road divisions of each team.
Buffalo ranked second in the NFL in points per game (0,500) last season. This number went to 0.545 at home. It was the best of the NFL by a wide margin, and they were one of the only two teams on average more than 0,500 points per home game in 2024.
More importantly than an already dominant offense is their defensive divisions. Buffalo only ranked 14th in the NFL in points per game (0.356) authorized in 2024. This number fell to 0.299 at home, which ranked seventh in the league.
The ravens are in the same boat as the bills, which adds to the importance of where this game will be played. Baltimore ranked third in points per game (0.482) in 2024. This number dropped to 0.471 on the road. They also granted 0.345 points per game overall, but this number went to 0.368 on the road.
The key here is the difference between numbers. The Bills mark 0.045 more points per game at home, while the Ravens mark 0.011 points less per game. Buffalo also abandons 0.057 points less per game in their home stadium, against Baltimore, the abandonment of 0.023 more points per game outside.
The overall difference is that Buffalo wins 0.102 points per game at home, while Baltimore loses 0.034. It is a drastic obstacle to overcome for any team.
We get one of the best NFL teams as a home, and the chances are too beautiful to pass.
Where to bet: Buffalo Bills Moneyline | +105 at ESPN Bet
