Superbugs could kill millions more and cost 2 TN per year by 2050, the models show | Antibiotics
Superbugs could kill millions of people worldwide and cost the global economy just under 2 TN per year by 2050, shows modeling.
A study funded by the British government shows that without concerted action, increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (RAM) could lead to the world’s annual losses of GDP of 1.7 TN in the next quarter of a century.
Research, by the Center for Global Development Thinktank, revealed that the American, British and European economies are among the hardest affected, which prompted the accusations that the recent swinging aid are self-deficit.
On Thursday, the British government announced that it had financing for Fleming Fund, which fights RAM in low and intermediate income countries, as part of broader aid reductions. The Trump administration has confirmed $ 9 billion in discounts of its foreign aid budget, while a number of European countries have also reduced the expenses abroad.
Anthony McDonnell, the main author and research and a political scholarship holder at the Center for Global Development, said: “When we conducted our research on the economic impacts of the antimicrobial resistance, it was expected that resistance rates would continue to follow historical trends.
“However, the sudden reductions in official development aid by the United States, which has reduced its assistance expenses by around 80%; The United Kingdom, which has announced aid reductions from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income; And substantial reductions in France, Germany, and others, could increase online resistance rates with the most pessimistic scenario in our research.
“Even countries that have managed to keep RAM levels under control cannot afford to be complacent. Unless AMR programs are protected from aid reductions, resistance rates around the world will probably increase at a pace in accordance with the most affected countries.
“This would lead to millions of more people around the world, including in the G7 nations. Investing in the treatment of bacterial infections will now save lives and offer billions of long -term economic returns. ”
Research has calculated the economic burden and health of the antibiotic resistance for 122 countries and provides that in this in this most pessimistic scenario, by 2050, the losses of GDP in China could reach a little less than $ 722 billion per year, the 295.7 billion US dollars, the EU 187 billion dollars, Japan 65.7 billion dollars Americans and the United Kingdom 58.6 billion dollars.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), deaths by AMR should increase by 60% by 2050, with 1.34 million people in the United States and 184,000 in the United Kingdom, alone, to die each year of bacteria resistant to antibiotics, while the numbers of those who become seriously sick from drug resistance should also jump.
Superposses increase the number of admission to the hospital and lead to longer and more intensive hospital stays, more expensive secondary treatments and more complex care, which means that resistant infections are about twice costly to deal with as those for which antibiotics are effective.
The study estimates that global AMR treatment health costs could increase a little less than $ 176 billion a year, while in the United Kingdom, they would increase from $ 3.7 billion dollars and the United States of $ 15.5 billion to just under $ 57 billion.
Higher rates of resistant bugs would also reduce the staff of the United Kingdom, EU and the United States by 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, the study revealed.
But if the countries invest more in the fight against superpusses – to increase access to new antibiotics and high quality treatment of these infections – the US economy would increase $ 156.2 billion per year and the $ 12 billion in the United Kingdom (9.3 billion pounds sterling) by 2050.
Responding to the conclusions, Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, professor of health metrics in Ihme, said: “Today, the threat of RAM increases, and without immediate action of all stakeholders, the drugs to which we have access could stop working, which could cause simple infection and simple infection.”
This would imply political changes in American, European and British governments, the development of new drugs and guarantee that everyone understood that antibiotics were ineffective against viruses, he added.
A spokesman for the British government said: “Our 10-year health plan recognizes resistance to antimicrobials (AMR) as a major threat and undertakes to urgently approach its propagation, including through new vaccines.
“We have made significant progress – reducing the use of antibiotics in meat and pioneer of a global subscription model first to encourage the development of new treatments. We also continue to work in close collaboration with international partners to influence global efforts to limit the spread of RAM. ”
