Six Preview Picks: Kansas Will Finally Get Victory Against K-State in Tournesol Showdown

SALT LAKE CITY – Kansas and Kansas State meet annually in the Sunflower Showdown, one of the most played rivalries in college football history.

The 123rd edition will feature two teams with no margin for error in the Big 12 race. A loss to Kansas (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) and Kansas State (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) would be elimination from the conference title race.

Kansas State has won 16 straight in the rivalry, but has survived on close calls and fourth-quarter comebacks in recent meetings. Kansas enters as a favorite for the first time since 2009 and wants to break into its renovated stadium with a resounding victory.

The state title is on the line in Lawrence, Kansas (10 a.m. MDT, TNT).

Game Evaluator

(Statistical dominance adjusted for opponent via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Kansas 53.4 (27th of 68, power 4) | Kansas State 66.1 (11th)
2024 season: Kansas 53.0 (32nd) | Kansas State 61.3 (20th)
2025 season: Kansas 51.0 (43rd) | Kansas State 50.9 (44th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key part of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine, I selected Kansas to finish 12th and out of the Big 12 title race. The 2024 season was supposed to be the big year with a veteran roster, and before 2025 they had to replace that giant senior class, both coordinators and the school’s all-time champion.

So far, they have slightly exceeded those expectations and picked up championship victories against both coaching change teams, UCF and West Virginia. They lost to their other rival Missouri in the Border War 42-31 (-340 yards), lost in a shootout to Cincinnati (37-34) and were eliminated by Texas Tech.

At Big 12 media days, coaches selected Kansas State as the preseason pick to win the conference. I disagreed and went against the crowd by lowering them to sixth place in the Big 12 predictions. So far, they’ve already lost four games – two in the Big 12 – and are 1-4 in one-score games.

They needed a late comeback to survive against FCS North Dakota.

The teams have nearly identical Game Grader rankings and are ranked 43rd and 44th out of the 68 Power Four teams.

Kansas with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted measurements, according to Pick Six Previews)

Kansas Offense: 6th out of 68 Power 4 teams, 3rd passing, 26th rushing
Kansas State Defense: 44th out of 68 Power 4 teams, 34th pass defense, 48th rush defense

In his sixth season, quarterback Jalon Daniels saved the best for last. So far, he leads the entire Big 12 in QB rating and is the only one in the league’s top four in all key categories: QB rating, yards per attempt, touchdowns and completion percentage.

These statistics do not take into account his elusiveness and his hustles which extend plays and free receivers.

Kansas had the most veteran receiving room in America last season, lost them all this offseason, but found a new star to build around in Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson. He ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 76 yards per game and leads the league in catch average (min. 30 receptions).

Kansas State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27 points per game, nearly 400 yards, and ranks below average in opponent-adjusted rushing and pass defense stats. Kansas should be able to move the ball consistently and make explosive passing plays.

Kansas State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted measurements, according to Pick Six Previews)

Kansas State Offense: 41st out of 68 Power 4 teams, 37th in passing, 31st in rushing
Kansas Defense: 33rd out of 68 Power 4 teams, 17th pass defense, 54th rush defense

Avery Johnson entered 2025 with legitimate All-Big 12 consideration, but the second-year starter has regressed and ranks as the 12th QB in the Big 12 rankings. Although he only threw two picks, one of them proved extremely costly against Baylor, in a spot where they were icing the game, he threw a pick six that turned a likely win into a loss.

He bounced back in the final game with a season-best three-touchdown game (no picks) to beat TCU 41-28.

The offense missed explosive running back Dylan Edwards, who was injured in the first game and didn’t fully break out. Without Edwards at full strength, the offense has shifted to a more passing-oriented approach, which is rare for Kansas State.

They throw the ball on 50% of plays, which may not seem high, but it’s the 12th most power-four play call. This speaks directly to the strength of Kansas’ defense, which ranks 17th to the power of four in opponent-adjusted pass defense statistics.

Game Prediction

My Game Grader formula has these teams virtually tied in rankings throughout the season, which would calculate a Kansas win projection of around 3 points (depending on how you view home-court advantage in Lawrence).

However, my other opponent-adjusted offensive/defensive stats lean heavily toward Kansas. That leads me to favor the hometown Jayhawks by a touchdown, where they will finally end one of the longest rivalry streaks in the country.

Kansas 31 | Kansas State 24