The Hormuz Strait: How could Iran close it and why is it important for global trade? | Iran
The unprecedented decision of President Donald Trump to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites deepened fears of an expanded conflict in the Middle East.
The ban on Iran could fight back, according to analysts, is to close the Hormuz Strait, a vital trade route, through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply, 20 million barrels and a large part of its liquefied gas, passes every day.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait, which would restrict trade and affect the world prices for oil, but has never followed the threat.
What is the Hormuz Strait?
Among the foreign points of the most important oils in the world, the Strait of Hormuz is geo-strategically important for the United States and beyond, because the force of the world economy depends strongly on the flow of oil.
The Strait is between Oman and Iran and connects the Gulf to the north with the Gulf of Oman in the south and the sea of Oman beyond.
It is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, the shipping routes 3 km wide in both directions.
Why is it so important?
About a fifth of the total oil consumption in the world goes through the Strait. Between the beginning of 2022 and last month, around 17.8 m at 20.8 million barrels in crude, condensate and fuel crossed the Strait daily, according to data from the Vortexa analysis company.
Members of the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) – Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – export most of their brut via the Strait, mainly in Asia.
The fifth American fleet, based in Bahrain, is responsible for protecting commercial expedition to the region.
What does Iran say about the Hormuz Strait?
Iran’s press TV reported the weekend that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the Hormuz Strait, but ultimately the decision will return to the main Iranian leaders.
On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested what could be an open reprisals when he said that Trump’s decision to bomb Iran “would have eternal consequences”.
In his first comments since the United States joined the War of Israel against his country, the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Israel had made a “serious error” and “should be punished”, but had made no specific reference to the Hormuz Strait.
How could Iran close it?
Any Iranian attempt to close the strait would almost certainly imply that Tehran tries to exploit the two 3 km wide shipping channels with ammunition ready to explode if they detect the traffic traffic.
Sea mines are feared, and Iran had several thousand, including the Chinese made EM-52, which launches a seabed rocket if it detects a target, as well as other mines which can be moored in the water.
However, a challenge for Tehran would be to successfully pose the weapons, because the exercise should be done relatively quickly and would be based on submarines-three largest courses of Russian manufacturing and a fleet of Ghadir Midget class submarines.
Marine exploitation could be supported by a combination of anti-ship batteries from the Iranian coast, small fast patrol boats as well as air and sea drones, although any bank-based capacity is probably attacked by Israel and probably in the United States.
Cleaning mines is a complex task, ideally managed in a relatively undisputed environment. Two American warships, USS Tripoli and USS Princeton were damaged by Iraqi mines in the 1991 Gulf War, but the United States has considerable military assets in the region.
Nick Childs, analyst of strategic studies of the Institut International, said that Iran could “cause very important disturbances and potentially seriously in the United States and other naval units” seeking to keep the navigable way, but “for these reasons, a concerted effort from Iran to close the Hormuz Strait would probably cause a considerable and complete American military response”.
What would happen if he was closed?
The closure of the strait has the advantage of being a means of imposing a direct cost on Trump, because it would trigger a peak of oil prices with an almost immediate inflationary effect in the United States and around the world.
But it would also be an act of dramatic economic self -control. Iranian oil uses the same gateway and closed the risks of Hormuz bringing the Arab States of the Gulf, which were very critical of the Israeli attack, in the war to protect their own interests.
In particular, the closure of the Strait would considerably harm China. The second world economy buys almost 90% of Iranian oil exports, which are subject to international sanctions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing it, saying to Fox News: “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them on this subject because they depend strongly on the Hormuz Strait for their oil.”
“If they do this, it will be another terrible mistake,” he added. “It is an economic suicide for them if they do.”
There are already reports that some supertankers have turned around the strategic navigable path after the American strikes.
