Severe thunderstorms with dangerous winds and isolated tornadoes threaten the South and Midwest this weekend
Thunderstorms that erupt across the South and Midwest to kick off the weekend could become severe and produce dangerous winds, a few tornadoes and heavy rain.
Fall hasn’t been particularly active so far, but the return of severe thunderstorms is a reminder this season, and sometimes winter can experience a similar clash of weather ingredients that generate spring’s powerful storms.
Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and northern Louisiana Arkansas and parts of the lower and middle Mississippi River valleys have the highest chance of experiencing severe storms Saturday afternoon into late night.
Strong winds capable of knocking out power and damaging or uprooting trees pose the greatest threat, although there is enough rotation in the atmosphere to generate isolated tornadoes that can form quickly with little advance warning. Large hail, ranging from the size of a quarter to the size of a golf ball, could also accompany some of the storms.
Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, Tenn.; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Paducah, Kentucky, are among the cities where people should stay alert for severe weather warnings while tackling their weekend plans.
Heavy rain could also trigger flash flooding in places, although much of the region is so dry that downpours are necessary. Moderate to severe drought covers much of the lower and middle Mississippi River valleys as well as the Ozarks of southern Missouri and northeast Arkansas.
Fall usually brings to mind cool, crisp air and blue skies, but the United States is seeing an unusually warm draft moving north ahead of a cold front in the central part of the country. High temperatures Saturday are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above average from Texas to the Ohio Valley, with temperatures of 80 degrees as far north as Indiana and Ohio.
Columbus, Ohio, could approach its daily record of 83 degrees on Saturday, while San Antonio, Texas, flirts with a daily record of 93 degrees.
Storm systems become more energetic in fall and winter as the jet stream – a narrow band of strong winds in the atmosphere where commercial planes fly – strengthens and descends toward the southern United States. Storms riding the jet stream can become violent whenever southerly winds pull warm, moist air from the Gulf. Gulf waters are unseasonably warm right now, adding a touch of extra moisture to this weekend’s setup.
The South and, sometimes, lower parts of the Midwest, such as the Ohio and central Mississippi valleys, tend to be the areas most affected by severe thunderstorms in fall and winter. In some cases, a major winter storm will dump heavy snowfall in northern areas, while the South faces a threat of a severe spring storm from the same system.
And with the loss of daylight during these months, there is a greater chance that the threat of dangerous storms will extend into the evening and overnight. Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as daytime tornadoes, according to a 2022 study.
Colder temperatures will arrive in the coming weeks and months, but severe storms will likely appear at times. It is therefore important to remain vigilant and put a preparation plan in place throughout the year.
