Rybakina and Sabalenka will present the 13th edition of their rivalry in the districts of Wuhan
It will be Aryna Sabalenka against Elena Rybakina sxiii in the open quarterfinals of Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan.
The two rivals will face each other for the 13th time after both coming through tough straight-set clashes on Thursday. Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed, needed just an hour and 15 minutes to defeat No. 16 seed Liudmila Samsonova, 6-3, 6-2, and Rybakina, the No. 8 seed, followed with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Beijing finalist Linda Noskova.
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Sabalenka, a three-time champion from Wuhan, extended her unbeaten run at the tournament to 19-0 and her active winning streak to eight matches. After losing two of her first three matches with Samsonova in 2022 and 2023, she has now won three in a row – all in straight sets – in the last 14 months. Rybakina, making her first appearance in Wuhan since reaching the 2019 quarter-finals on her debut, returned to this stadium for the second time with her third victory in as many meetings with Noskova.
How have Sabalenka and Rybakina progressed?
It’s not unusual for Sabalenka and Rybakina’s performances to revolve around serving quality, but the hit was particularly sweet for both players here. Neither even faced a break point – despite hitting just 49% of first serves, in Rybakina’s case. (Sabalenka’s first serve percentage was 66%.)
Sabalenka was particularly indifferent to the service. She only conceded 10 points behind on her execution in total; Only once was Samsonova able to collect multiple points on the return leg in a single match. Rybakina was pushed harder, but won all four points (from three separate games) she played in the match.
Rybakina also had to be patient to quell a valiant performance from Noskova. The 20-year-old Czech, who was trying to reach back-to-back WTA 1000 quarterfinals, managed to save the first six break points she faced through aggressive play, and overall fended off 10 out of 12. But at 4-3 in the first set, it was chance number seven for Rybakina as Noskova double-faulted to drop her serve for the first time.
How has the Sabalenka vs Rybakina rivalry broken down so far?
Their quarterfinal on Friday will be something of a full circle: Sabalenka and Rybakina first faced each other (at the professional level) at the same stage of the same tournament in 2019. Sabalenka won that match 6-3, 1-6, 6-1, the first of four straight three-set victories to kick off their rivalry — including a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 triumph at the Open of Australia 2023. final, the only major title match they have played so far. In total, Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 7-5.
However, once Rybakina entered the picture with a 7-6(11), 6-4 victory in the 2023 Indian Wells final, she began to turn the tide in her favor. The Kazakh player has won five of her last eight meetings and actually leads outdoor hardcourt matchups 5-4 overall – Sabalenka hasn’t beaten Rybakina on hardcourts since the 2023 WTA Finals in Cancun. The last time they played, Rybakina needed just 75 minutes to earn a 6-1, 6-4 victory in the Cincinnati quarterfinals in August.
The length of the match is another factor to watch. Four of Rybakina’s five wins in the series came in straight sets; the only time she won a deciding match against Sabalenka was at the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh, where she won 6-4, 3-6, 6-1. In contrast, Sabalenka’s seven wins came in straight sets, including a 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(6) escape after a quadruple match point in this year’s Berlin quarterfinals. The takeaway from this stat seems to be that even if Rybakina can find a level that allows her to completely shut out Sabalenka, if the match comes down to the end, Sabalenka has the advantage.
How is Rybakina’s bid to make the WTA Finals in Riyadh going?
Two places are up for grabs for the WTA Finals in Riyadh, and three of the top four players in the field have all qualified for the quarter-finals in Wuhan. Besides Rybakina, Jessica Pegula won 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Jasmine Paolini advanced after a right thigh injury forced Clara Tauson to fall behind 3-6, 6-1, 3-1.
Paolini and Rybakina remain eighth and ninth respectively and have put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack – especially considering 10th-ranked Alexandrova’s defeat means no one is able to overtake Rybakina directly in Wuhan this week. The exits of Tauson, 11th, and Noskova, 15th, also helped.
Pegula’s victory also means that neither Paolini nor Rybakina will be able to overtake her this week. However, seventh-ranked Mirra Andreeva – who lost her opening match in Wuhan to Laura Siegemund on Tuesday – is in their crosshairs. Paolini and Rybakina, who are on opposite sides, can overtake Andreeva if they reach the final. Rybakina must advance further than Paolini to overtake the Italian this week; if they lose in the same round, Paolini will remain in the lead.
