The hardest players to project ahead of an NBA season are the rookies, as it all depends on their preparation for the speed, power and explosiveness of the NBA game. There is no other league in the world that can truly compare to what young players will face when they arrive in the league with the silhouette of Jerry West on the logo.
Some players are more ready to make an impact immediately, while others may never catch up in the NBA game. Then there are the players who just need time, and whether it’s during their rookie season or maybe the offseason that follows, the switch flips and they find they’re ready to play. As you prepare for your fantasy basketball drafts, it will be up to you to identify which players fall into which category and choose accordingly.
This is where I come in.
Even though the playoffs were still underway, I was already immersed in researching the NBA Draft, thinking about how their skill sets might fit with the teams that might draft them. Then I went to the desert and explored the Las Vegas Summer League to watch the top prospects in person. I wanted to see how they moved, what their energy was like, and if they seemed to have that extra something in them that would help them transition to the NBA.
Let’s take a look at the top 10 rookies and when you should consider putting them in your fantasy basketball drafts.
Must draft early
Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks: Flagg has been touted for years as a future NBA superstar, and the outlook for his rookie season is more similar to that of the last historically touted rookie, Victor Wembanyama two seasons ago, than to any of the rookies from last season’s class. Flagg led his college team, the Duke Blue Devils, in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game. He showed me during the Las Vegas Summer League that he has the size, strength and mindset to make an immediate impact at the NBA level.
The Mavericks have a strong enough team to compete for the playoffs, but a clear hole on the offensive perimeter with Kyrie Irving (ACL) out for at least the first half of the season. As such, the door is open for Flagg to be the Mavs’ primary offensive threat from the wing early on. I projected him firmly in my preseason fantasy hoops top 50, and I conservatively expect him to be drafted within the first four rounds.
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Mid to late rounds
Outside of Flagg, there are several other rookies with the talent to produce fantasy-worthy numbers if things work out. But they are not necessarily guaranteed to do so from the opening tip, or even during the opening. month of the season. Let’s talk about some of those who have the best opportunity to produce enough in time to merit being drafted in fantasy hoops leagues.
Ace Bailey, SF/PF, Utah Jazz: He was considered one of the three most talented and NBA-ready players in the class, along with Flagg and Bailey’s college teammate Dylan Harper. But while Harper was drafted to a San Antonio Spurs team with plenty of quality depth at his position, Bailey was drafted to become the offensive centerpiece of a rebuilding Jazz team. Bailey has a legitimate chance to be the team’s leading scorer as a rookie, and is the most likely rookie outside of Flagg to produce impactful fantasy hoops numbers early on.
Dylan Harper, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs: Outside of Flagg, Harper was the most impressive rookie I saw play at Las Vegas Summer League. His skills, size and athleticism flashed and I gave him credit for comparing his game favorably to that of rookie Brandon Roy – arguably the most impressive rookie guard performance I’ve seen in two decades of Summer League scouting. If Harper had been drafted to a team that needed to utilize him to the fullest, he would likely be draftable in at least the mid rounds.
Instead, the Spurs have All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox, along with reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and young veterans Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson on the wings. The Spurs have made it clear that Harper is a key part of their future, but it’s hard to see where he’ll make a worthwhile impact in the immediate future. Harper could play there during the season, and his talent and potential are such that he could be worth stashing on a fantasy hoops bench even if he’s not capable of putting up big numbers right away.
Egor Demin, PG, Brooklyn Nets: Demin is the most likely to produce immediately among the five first-round picks the Nets had in this year’s draft. Demin is a big point guard who fits well in the starting backcourt alongside undersized scorer Cam Thomas. Demin has been dealing with plantar fascia issues that could slow him down early in the season, but once healthy, Demin could be the type of all-around producer who has value in both point and bracket leagues.
VJ Edgecombe, SG, Philadelphia 76ers: The Baylor product currently projects as a starting wing on the 76ers, especially during Jared McCain’s absence. Edgecombe possesses explosive jumping ability and quickness on the wing, which helps him be a finisher in the lane and on the fast break as well as helping defensively. He’s a great defender who could contribute steals and even blocks, a nice bonus for a guard. Edgecombe’s projected role doesn’t scream big numbers, as he’s not a long-range shooter, but he has talent, opportunity and upside, which could be worth a late-round steal in fantasy hoops drafts.
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Deeper leagues and free agents
Tre Johnson, SG, Washington Wizards: Johnson could be one of the best 3-point shooters in this year’s class as he can shoot with both volume and accuracy, both off the point and off the dribble. Johnson’s ability to create his own shot is a boon for a rebuilding Wizards team that doesn’t have much perimeter talent. He could be worth being a late-round player in fantasy hoops leagues because, if he can reach his potential as a teen scorer with potentially the most 3-pointers in the rookie class, he could end up becoming a flex starter before the end of the season.
Kon Knueppel, SG, Charlotte Hornets: Knueppel also has a reputation as the best shooter in this draft class, but he is known more for his accurate shooting than his ability to create. There is fantasy value in being a 3-point shooter featuring talented creator/scorer types. With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Collin Sexton doing more creating and scoring, and thus drawing more defensive attention, Knueppel could get more open shots against defenses that weren’t centered on him. It’s unclear whether Knueppel will generate the volume necessary to be useful in point leagues, but his ability to produce a large number of 3-point shots could make him worthy of consideration in point leagues.
Jeremiah Fears, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans: The former Sooner is (excuse the pun) a fearless shooter/scorer on the wing, and he could end up getting more minutes for the Pelicans early in the season as Dejounte Murray is sidelined until the new year. Fears still projects as a sixth man at best, so it’s unclear whether he’ll post fantasy-worthy numbers, but he’s worth keeping an eye on as a free agent with upside potential.
Khaman Maluach, C, Phoenix Suns: Maluach was drafted as a middle defensive player for the Suns. He’ll likely come off the bench to start the season, but keep in mind he’s replacing Mark Williams. Williams has missed 140 of a possible 246 games in his career, never playing more than 44 games in any of his three NBA seasons. If Maluach ends up getting starting minutes, his shot blocking could be of interest to top leagues.
Nique Clifford, SG, Sacramento Kings: Clifford deserves a mention here. He’s an older recruit at 23, and after an impressive fifth season in college, he turned in a dominant performance at the Las Vegas Summer League. He’s set to back up DeMar DeRozan, so he probably won’t get enough minutes early on, but he’s another free agent I’ll keep an eye on once the season starts.
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