The Denver Broncos will host the Las Vegas Raiders in a divisional game on Thursday night. The Broncos have had a lot of success, going 7-2 in nine games. The Raiders haven’t had as much success, going 2-6 so far.
Denver shined offensively, but they weren’t dominant at all. They rank 17th in the NFL in points (.392) per game, but that number drops to .440 at home. They are averaging 31.3 points per game in Denver this season.
The Broncos have also had plenty of red zone success in 2025. They rank eighth in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (67.9%). Unsurprisingly, they are slightly better at home, where this figure rises to 70.6%.
Denver has scored more than 28 points in three of its four home games this season. Surprisingly, the only team to hold the Broncos under that point total was the Tennessee Titans, but it was also their first game of the season. Since then, they have averaged 35 points per game against the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals.
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Most importantly, Denver gets an elite matchup against a terrible Las Vegas defense. They rank 23rd in the NFL in points allowed (0.411) per game. They have also been worse on the road, where they allow 0.488 points per game. Overall, the Raiders allow 31.3 points per game outside of Las Vegas.
The key here is how far into the red zone they are. Overall, they haven’t been terrible, allowing only a 61.3% touchdown rate. However, this figure rises to 76.5% on the road.
Las Vegas started its season with some defensive success. They held the New England Patriots to just 13 points in a road game. Since then, they have allowed 37.3 points per game to the Washington Commanders (Marcus Mariota), the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Ultimately, I’m just looking to add value to this number. FanDuel offers the same bet for odds of -188, which seems closer to correct. DraftKings also offers -175 odds on Denver to score over 2.5 touchdowns in this game.
I’ve mentioned before that I generally don’t like juice plays, but I like getting three touchdowns and a field goal here. The odds are a little too close on this particular number.
Where to bet: Denver Broncos over 23.5 points | -170 at DraftKings Sportsbook
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 15-21
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