The Tennessee Titans essentially eliminated themselves from the race for the top pick in next year’s draft after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 26-9.
The Titans entered Sunday without a home win this season and had the second-best chance at next year’s top pick. However, both of those results changed as the Chiefs’ nightmare season continued to fester. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew left the game early with a knee injury, just a week after starter Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL, and now the Chiefs suddenly find themselves within reach of a top 10 finish. (Their odds are about 52 percent, according to Athletics‘s NFL Simulator, with them projected to pick at No. 10.)
Tennessee (3-12) has won two of its last three games, with the remaining matchups coming against the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans’ chances of landing the No. 1 pick are less than 1%, and no combination of outcomes changes those chances, according to the simulator. The Titans’ chances of placing in the top five have even fallen below 50 percent.
Indeed, as the New York Giants face the Las Vegas Raiders next week in a battle between the league’s two remaining two-win teams, it is guaranteed that at least one team will finish the season with three wins. Even if the Titans lost their final two games to finish 3-14, their strength of schedule is significantly greater than other potential three-win teams and so they would lose the tiebreaker.
So even if Cam Ward won’t welcome another No. 1 pick to the Titans — or reap the benefits of a trade — Tennessee is at least building a bit of late-season momentum for its franchise quarterback.
As a reminder, the draft order presented here is based on the Austin Mock projection model, which includes where each team is expected to finish this season rather than how the draft order currently stacks up. Also note: the Arizona Cardinals are still technically in the mix for the first choice. Similar to the Titans, their schedule is high enough that they are unlikely to win tiebreakers, although their chances of retaining a top-five pick are around 73 percent.
Let’s take a look at how the teams still in the running for first place performed in Week 16.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
A week after being shut out 31-0 against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Raiders put up a great battle against the Houston Texans. The 23-21 loss was the Raiders’ closest game as they lost by 1 point to the Jaguars in overtime. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty had the best game of his young career, scoring both a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown of 50 yards or more.
The Raiders still have the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick, although their odds have dropped and are basically tied with the Giants. The model generally sees the Giants as stronger than the rest of this group in the top picks, although that appears to have changed after New York’s latest loss.
The Giants and Raiders meet Sunday in Las Vegas in what will be a huge swing game. A Raiders loss would bring their odds to about 62 percent, while a win would drop them to about 4 percent. The Raiders also have a Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs – now at their third-string quarterback – that could prove dangerous for fans dreaming of the top pick.
Remaining schedule: vs. New York Giants, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants (2-13)
The Giants are on a nine-game losing streak and haven’t won since early October. Their last 16-13 result against the Minnesota Vikings gave their No. 1 pick chances a big boost and the model now sees them as virtually the same as the Raiders.
The Vikings defense completely shut down rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Giants offense. Their 141 yards of offense were by far their lowest total of the season, and Dart finished with just 33 yards on 7-of-13 passing. A first-round pick in next year’s draft would be a rare highlight after a frustrating season for the Giants and help them turn a new leaf under a new coach. The Giants fired Brian Daboll in November.
A crucial game in Las Vegas next week could decide who makes the top pick. If the Giants lose, their No. 1 pick odds rise to about 67 percent. If they win, the odds drop to less than 1 percent. Like the Raiders, their path to the No. 1 pick is pretty clear: Lose the last two games and the No. 1 pick is theirs.
Remaining schedule: at Las Vegas Raiders, against Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets (3-12)
In their first game since the firing of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, the Jets defense showed progress. They (barely) broke their two-game skid by allowing more than 30 points, but the offense was a completely different story in the 29-6 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Saints (5-10) were previously in the running for the top pick, but a three-game winning streak eliminated them from contention.
The Jets’ chances for the top pick increased slightly after Sunday’s result, but still rank last among contending teams.
Remaining schedule: vs. New England Patriots, at Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
The Browns’ 23-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills was far from their worst performance of the season. But an offense that struggled all year continued to fail and miss opportunities to take control. Cleveland will also now be without rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who was carted off the field in the second quarter with a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula.
The loss increased Cleveland’s No. 1 pick chances by about 12 percent. If they lose their remaining two games and the Giants and Raiders each win a game, the Browns should win the top pick thanks to the strength of the schedule tiebreaker.
Remaining schedule: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, vs. Cincinnati Bengals
