Projection model of the NFL, NFC Win Totals: what is the width of the gap between the Eagles and everyone?
Athletics has live coverage of the pre-season action of the NFL on Friday.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the defending champions of the Super Bowl, so it is not surprising that they are the favorite of the NFL projection to conquer the NFC this year, with 15.5% chance of making a back to back. That said, the competition is close, because my model projects the NFC to be very strong this year, from top to … almost the bottom (sorry in advance, fans of the giants and saints).
The Lions of Detroit, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all teams that my model gives at least 8% chance of winning the NFC this season, and the NFC 2024 finalists, Washington commanders, barely failed to qualify for this arbitrary point at 7.8%. Each of these teams must prove that it can reach the level of Eagles, but the real point to remember is that the NFC does not look much like AFC. While the AFC is heavy with its three big ones, the NFC is full of contenders.
(If you want a quick refresh on the operation of my model, scroll down the story.)
NFC East
Will we see the first consecutive champion of NFC East since 2004? Probably. The reigning champions must replace some of the lost talents of last year’s elite unit, but apart from that, things seem sunny in Philadelphia. The Eagles have 68.8% chance of winning the East, the second best rating of any winner of the projected division, only finding themselves the Buffalo Bills (73.6%).
So who is n ° 2 in the East? They are always commanders, but Dallas cowboys are closer than some people believe it. Of course, this assumes that the owner of the Jerry Jones team can conclude an agreement with the Rusher Star Pass Micah Parsons, but if that happens, the cowboys will be looking for a place of Joker.
The other reason why the cowboys could be closer to Washington is that, although most expect that QB Jayden Daniels commanders improve an exceptional recruit season, I have my doubts. I certainly believe that Daniels is good, but he had a lot of high -level games breaking last season. Is this chance reproducible? Unlikely. It should be more effective in other areas to improve.
Finally, the giants complete the division. Although we would probably not see him to start the season, Jaxson Dart is the future of the quarterrier, and while launching the stars receiver, Malik Nabers should make his life easier, I have no great hopes for this offense, no matter who plays QB. However, I think that the defense, especially the line, could ensure that the offenses fear against the giants this season. Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and the choice of first round Abdul Carter are about as good as rushing the smuggler.
NFC North
It is the best division of football, and I am not willing to assert this. This division saw three teams win 11 games last season, and the most Basseur Chicago Bears hired Ben Johnson, the hottest name of the coach carousel in the last two cycles. Will three teams win two-digit games again? No, but the worst team will not only win five games either.
The Lions are for the first time NFC NFC champions of the NFC and are favored to make three of them in a row. But that doesn’t mean there are no questions. Losing an offensive spirit like Johnson, as well as the defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, will bite. How will QB Jared Goff go to the way the new offensive coordinator John Morton needed things? We will see soon, but something that will help alleviate some of the losses for lions is to get an Aidan Hutchinson healthy. The Rusher Star Pass wreaked havoc on the NFL last season before fracturing its tibia and its peonhized in week 6.
Packers, Minnesota Vikings and bears complete the rest of the division, packers obtaining the head sign due to the certainty in the quarter. Packers are much closer to Lions than Vikings despite what last year’s records indicate (Minnesota, 14-3; Green Bay 11-6), while the Vikings transform the keys of QB JJ McCarthy not proven. McCarthy is in a favorable situation, but it is difficult to know how good it can be until we see it playing.
JJ McCarthy
Vikings
◂ Worse
Better ▸
Chicago is where things become interesting in the North. The Bears have been a media offset team in recent seasons, but this year there is a real reason to get on the train. Johnson should make life much easier to QB Caleb Williams, as is the intersane investments made on the offensive line. But is the list ready to compete for a place of qualifying series when Chicago is in such a strong division? My model is not yet ready to go.
NFC South
The sequence of four consecutive division titles of Tampa Bay is likely to reach five, and it is not because my model considers buccaneers as global drummers, but rather because the rest of the division is not proven or simply bad. The Bucs offensive must prove that it can operate at a high rate without the estimated offensive coordinator Liam Coen (now in Jacksonville), so it will not be an easy road, but Tampa Bay certainly resembles a lock to win the South. My model puts the chances of doing so at 64.2%.
The model has the Falcons of Atlanta as the second best team in the division, and, of course, I don’t like it. The QB Michael Penix Jr. is a bit unknown, and the defense still has a long way to go despite the huge investments of the Falcons in the rush towards the pass during the draft. Fortunately for them, the Panthers of Carolina have even more to defend themselves, which reduces the second fascinating half of the season produced by QB Bryce Young and the offensive. As for the saints of New Orleans, my model does not care if the recruit Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattle wins the work of initial QB; They will be a candidate of choice n ° 1 of the draft, whatever the result.
NFC West
Although the NFC North is the best division of football, according to my model, the West should be the most exciting. Only two victories separate the top of this year, and persistent back injuries from Rams QB Matthew Stafford lead even more uncertainty.
Currently, my figures have 49ers like the favorite – they are dealing with their own injury problems at the moment – and this is mainly motivated by their much easier schedule than RAMS. In fact, I would promote rams to 49ers on a neutral field, but the difference in schedules gives San Francisco the advantage.
Most divisions have a team or two you don’t really need to be careful, but this is not the case in the West. The Cardinals of Arizona and the Seattle Seahawks are likely to deliver winning records this season. The two teams have at least 14% chance of winning the division and 37% chance of making the playoffs. If the injury bug becomes too much for the 49ers and / or the rams to overcome – and that happened before – these two will be there to take advantage of it.
How the NFL mock projection model works
My NFL projection model takes Play-By-Play data and creates offensive and defensive projections for each team. Using these projections, we can simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team should win, how often this team makes the playoffs and the probability of winning the division and the Super Bowl.
(Photo: Tim / Getty Images)
