Predictions of international films at the Oscars

Just before the 2020 lockdown, the Best International Feature Film category was about to open in a big way, with the surprise winner of Best South Korean Film. Parasite bringing director Bong Joon Ho an almost unprecedented haul of four statuettes, from six nominations. The success of the film was general; Besides the main award and the inevitable Best International award, there were nominations for directing, screenplay, editing and production design. All signs seemed to suggest that the world was about to become a much smaller, friendlier place and that language barriers would disappear.

Instead, the spread of Covid-19 dealt a fatal blow to production all over the world and, subsequently, some of the old prejudices re-emerged, a situation which was not really helped by an increasingly isolationist sentiment which seemed to extend to every country in the world. This year, however, it’s possible that the International category will find its feet again, and there’s no better example than Brazil’s entry. The secret agent. The story of a teacher forced underground by the country’s military dictatorship in 1977, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s thriller closely follows last year’s winner, I’m still heredirected by Walter Salles and starring Fernanda Torres. At Cannes, Filho’s film won him Best Director, as well as Best Actor for his star Wagner Moura, leading some to speculate that The secret agent could also migrate to other categories.

The same could be said of Norway Sentimental value. The story of an arthouse filmmaker trying to reconnect with his ex-daughter, Joachim Trier’s film could finally see some Oscar love for Stellan Skarsgård, who plays the talented but thoughtless father, and Renate Reinsve, as his daughter, a brilliant but troubled actress. Elle Fanning could also generate buzz for her role as an American starlet who inadvertently finds herself caught in the crossfire, while the script, co-written by Trier and his regular collaborator Eskil Vogt, delivers the kind of vivid emotion that voters often crave.

Luckily, even with his most well-received film to date, Trier finds himself in the situation he was in with his 2021 film. The worst person in the world. A natural winner for Best International Film every other year, this film was blocked at every turn by Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s film. Drive my car. History looks set to repeat itself in the form of Jafar Panahi’s speech. It was just an accidentan Iranian satirical drama about a former political prisoner who, after trying to live a quiet life, encounters a man who he claims tortured him in prison. Panahi’s only attempt so far in the International category, with that of 1995 The white ballwas sabotaged when the Iranian government forced him to remove it. This time, France supports him and it could pay off. More importantly, since Cannes, Panahi has been sentenced to a year in prison by Iranian authorities – his punishment for making anti-government “propaganda” – and the director has vowed to return home to serve every day. That, plus his recent wins at the Gotham Awards (for director, screenplay and international film), bodes well for the Oscars.

Another film that seems likely to make the shortlist is Tunisia’s entry, Hind Rajab’s voice. Directed by Kaouther Ben Hania, the film recreates the final hours of a little girl caught in the war in Gaza, using recordings of her real voice as actors reenact the circumstances that conspired to prevent aid workers from reaching her in time. The film was a huge hit with critics at the Venice Film Festival, receiving a 23-minute standing ovation, but, mysteriously, lost out to Jim Jarmusch’s calm performance. Father Mother Sister Brother comes the awards ceremony, settling for the second Grand Prize of the Jury. It’s possible that Ben Hania’s film is too political, or just too crude, for the Academy, and it’s possible that the many famous executives attached to it (including Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, Alfonso Cuarón and Jonathan Glazer) could do more harm than good.

These four films seem like safe bets to be selected, but the battle for fifth place promises to be interesting. One would think that Park Chan-wook No other choice would be a good bet, having won TIFF’s first International People’s Choice Award, but the South Korean stalwart has always struggled to crack the American market. Indeed, No other choice was supposed to be his second English-language film after Driver (2013), until funding collapsed. Starring 2016 Academy inductee Lee Byung-hun as a paper factory worker who turns to murder to get his job back, it’s a socially conscious dark comedy that some say is a little too similar to Bong’s hit to go the distance. However, Park is a big name, and voters are unlikely to be won over by his usually deadpan star, who gives a comically atypical performance.

But pre-selection is by no means a sure-fire affair and, once again this year, the Cannes Film Festival has proven to be fertile ground for contenders in all sections. From the Competition three significant contenders emerge, and the most obvious could appear to the Belgian selection, Young mothersby Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne. But if the double Palmes d’Or are arthouse darlings, the Oscars have largely escaped them, except in 2014, where French actress Marion Cotillard was nominated for Two days, one night. Cotillard’s power was, however, rare for the Dardennes, and Young mothersabout five women housed in a shelter, sees them return to more familiar territory, with the help of a cast of non-professionals and strangers.

If Cannes voters were looking to make a statement, two other European Competition entries stand out. Proposed by Germany, the hypnotic of Mascha Schilinski Falling soundthe impressionistic study of four generations of women in a small rural town, might impress more adventurous voters, and the same goes for Olivier Laxe’s work. Cry. A sleeper hit backed by solid word of mouth, this story of a man infiltrating an underground rave tribe in a near-future dystopia is a risk that could pay off for Spain, especially if voters can experience its terrific sound design in cinemas. The Philippines, however, might be guilty of wishful thinking in choosing Lav Diaz’s Cannes premiere. Magellana 160-minute biopic (short by Diaz’s usual standards) about a 16th-century Portuguese explorer starring Mexican Gael García Bernal.

But the International category is not necessarily a showcase of style and technique; sometimes it’s a matter of relevant worldbuilding. Launched during Critics’ Week on the Croisette, Shih-Ching Tsou’s Left-handed girl was quickly picked up by Netflix, perhaps encouraged by the involvement of this year’s Oscar winner Sean Baker as co-writer and editor. A women’s drama about a mother and her two daughters who set up a stall at a Taipei night market, it features a stunning performance from young actress Nina Ye, whose natural charm is the film’s secret weapon.

Given how much noise there is in the International category, voters will no doubt want some advice. Much like Sean Baker’s imprimatur, Martin Scorsese’s seal of approval might tempt many to enter India, Confined at home by Neeraj Ghaywan, which tells the story of two friends from a small town who dream of joining the police force. The film also bears the laurels of Un Certain Regard, just like the Colombian selection, A poetwho won the Jury Prize in the lateral section. Directed by Simón Mesa Soto, this tragicomic tale of a failed artist trying to mentor a teenage girl is ubiquitous on the festival circuit.

Petra Volpe’s film has also traveled widely. Late postwhich could end a period of drought for Switzerland. Premiering at the Berlinale, this discreet but high-pressure story of a nurse at the end of her tether received very good reviews, largely praising the performance of its star Léonie Benesch. However, the real underdog this year is The President’s Cake; set in 1990, it tells the picaresque story of a 9-year-old girl forced to prepare a gift for Saddam Hussein in honor of the dictator’s birthday. Not only did the film’s score receive rave reviews upon its debut appearance at Directors’ Fortnight, but Hasan Hadi’s directorial debut could also be the first Iraqi film to be nominated since 2005. For that reason alone, the stars could yet align for him in what currently appears to be a wide-open year.