Variety The Awards Circuit section is home to all the awards news and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety Clayton Davis, Awards Editor. Prediction pages reflect current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
BUGONIA, Jesse Plemons
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (updated October 9, 2025): The literary prestige and ingenuity of the staging sum up this year’s category of adapted screenplays.
“Hamnet,” adapted by Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao from O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel, presents itself as a fusion of beauty, fidelity and cinematic imagination, fusing Zhao’s visual poetry with O’Farrell’s emotional precision. By contrast, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland,” channels the filmmaker’s characteristic sense of chaos and desire into a multi-layered reflection on social idealism and decadence.
Elsewhere, “Bugonia” reimagines the 2003 South Korean black comedy “Save the Green Planet” through the prism of Yorgos Lanthimos’ distinctive vision, with screenwriter Will Tracy transforming its absurdist horror into a darker, more satirical register.
The “little movie that could” this season is “Train Dreams,” an adaptation of Denis Johnson’s short story by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, which could emerge as a quiet threat as the season progresses. A lyrical portrait of isolation and loss, he has ardent defenders and admirers who could help him go further. Meanwhile, there’s a strong gut feeling that Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” based on a real-life story tied to the music industry, could bring a soulful, populist twist to a category defined this year by ambition and artistry — aided by standout performances from Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson.
PLEASE NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and final credits are subject to change.
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Image credit: Courtesy of Netflix
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Image credit: Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics
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Image credit: Courtesy of Cannes
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Image credit: Murray Close/Lionsgate
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Eligible titles (adapted scenario)
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