Danielle Kaye and Natalie ShermanBusiness journalists, New York
LightRocket via Getty ImagesOne player made nearly half a million dollars from the capture of the Venezuelan president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about whether anyone profited from inside knowledge of the U.S. operation.
Bets on Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been arrested.
One account, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, won more than $436,000 (£322,000) on a $32,537 bet.
It is still unclear who placed the bet. The anonymous account had a blockchain identifier consisting of letters and numbers.
Polymarket data shows that traders estimate Maduro’s chances of departure at just 6.5% as of the afternoon of Friday, January 2.
But they had risen to 11% shortly before midnight and jumped in the early hours of January 3, indicating a sudden change in position just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in U.S. custody.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a nonpartisan group that advocates for financial reform, told BBC’s US partner CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”
A handful of other Polymarket users have also made tens of thousands of dollars from bets on Maduro’s capture.
Some lawmakers are starting to take notice.
Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, introduced a bill Monday to prohibit government employees from trading in prediction markets if they have “material nonpublic information” related to a bet.
Prediction markets have grown in popularity in the United States in recent years, with companies like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to bet on everything from sports to politics.
Major companies in the sector have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.
The industry has faced increased scrutiny from regulators under the Biden administration. But it received a warmer reception under the Trump presidency.
Donald Trump Jr, the president’s son, holds advisory positions at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Insider trading is illegal on the stock market, but there are fewer regulations on prediction markets.
A Kalshi spokesperson said the prediction site “explicitly prohibits insider trading in any form, including government employees trading in prediction markets related to government activity.”
