Orne of current heat “likely to kill nearly 600 people in England and Wales” | Extreme heat

Nearly 600 people should die at the start of the roasting of the thermal wave in England and Wales, revealed a rapid analysis.

The increase in deaths would not occur without global heating caused by humans, scientists said, with temperatures increased by 2C-4C by pollution of fossil fuel.

Premature deaths will occur in both countries, but the highest mortality rates are expected in London and the West Midlands. Most deaths – 85% – will be people over 65, who are more vulnerable to extreme heat. Residents of downtown houses are also at high risk.

More than 10,000 people died before their stay in summer heat waves between 2020 and 2024, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Government preparations to protect people from climbing the impacts of the climate crisis were condemned as “inadequate, fragmentary and disjointed” by official advisers in April.

The heat 32C which will be endured by people in southeast of England on Saturday will have been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists announced on Friday.

“Heat waves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them generally have pre -existing health problems and rarely have the heat listed as a cause of contributory death,” said Dr. Garyfolos Konstantinis, to the Imperial College of London, which is part of the team that estimated the number of deaths.

“This real-time analysis reveals the hidden assessment of heat waves and we want it to help relaunch the alarm,” he said. “Heat waves are a threat underestimated in the United Kingdom and they become more dangerous with climate change.”

Professor Antonio Gasparrini, at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and also part of the analysis team, said: “Increases of one degree or two can make the difference between life and death.

“When temperatures exceed the limits, the populations are acclimatized, excessive deaths can increase very quickly. Each fraction of a degree of warming will cause more admissions to the hospital and heat deaths, which will put more pressure on the NHS. ”

The analysis used decades of British data to determine the relationship between temperatures and heat deaths in more than 34,000 areas through England and Wales.

The researchers combined this with high resolution weather forecasts to estimate that there will be around 570 deaths between Thursday and Sunday, with 129 in London. The number could be an underestimation, they said, because people were less prepared for heat waves at the start of the summer.

Dr. Malcolm Mistry, in LSHTM, said: “Temperature exposure in the 1920s or the lower may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, especially for people over the age of 65, infants, pregnant people and people with pre -existing health problems.”

Ukhsa sounded the alarm Thursday with an alert of amber thermal health, also warning “an increase in deaths” and “important impacts” on health and social care services. The alert should remain in force until 9 a.m. on Monday.

Dr. Lorna Powell, NHS urgent care doctor in eastern London, said: “We see cases of heat -related diseases.

“Heat exhaustion can quickly trigger more serious illnesses, as dehydration sets in and the cardiovascular system becomes outdated.

“We have to stop burning coal, oil and gas if we want to stabilize our climate and prevent dozens of avoidable health problems, hospital visits and deaths.”

Ukhsa recommends that people stay away from the sun between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. on the hottest days, drink a lot of water and look for the elderly. A recent study estimated that 80% of British houses overheat in summer.

The hot sun has also led to a warning of atmospheric pollution high in London on Saturday, with people with pulmonary problems who advised to limit the exercise.

The climate crisis led the annual global temperature in 2024 to a new record and carbon, oil and gas carbon dioxide emissions are still increasing. This means that heat waves will become more and more intense and frequent.

A recent report from the British Climate Change Committee estimated that heat-related deaths could reach more than 10,000 per year by 2050 if global temperatures increased to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

Globally, extreme heat is more fatal than floods, earthquakes and combined hurricanes, making around 500,000 lives per year, according to a report by the SWISS Re insurer.

“Extreme heat events are more dangerous than natural disasters in terms of lost human life, but the true cost only turns out to be,” said Nina ARQUINT, CEO of business solutions at Swiss Re.