The Tulsa Golden Hurricane couldn’t come through for us last week, dropping our “Ugly Underdogs” to 4-2 as we reached the halfway point of the college football season. It’s been quite a ride so far, but things are only going to get worse as we head into the home stretch. As for this week, we head to Oxford, the literary center of the South, for a showdown between Ole Miss and Washington State.
The biggest gap in Week 7 comes in the most unusual game of the weekend. It’s hard to see any sense in a matchup between No. 4 Ole Miss and Washington State in the heart of the SEC season, but college football often throws up these wacky matchups when you least expect it.
For Washington State, this is an opportunity to do something they rarely get the chance to do: make an impact on the College Football Playoff picture.
It’s been a pretty dour scene in Pullman since the Cougars were abandoned by the Pac-12 siblings during the great college football schism a few years ago.
A once-proud program, Wazzu has been wandering the landscape as an independent for two years, making it very difficult to recruit or attract the type of donations Power 4 programs receive from boosters.
Considering their lot in life these days, 2024 was actually a pretty promising year for the Cougars. They went 8-5 and earned a trip to the Holiday Bowl against Syracuse.
Unfortunately, Power 4 schools noticed that the Cougars were punching above their weight. This led to quarterback John Mateer transferring to Oklahoma, where he is now a Heisman candidate, and head coach Jake Dickert moving to Wake Forest.
That meant Washington State was essentially starting from scratch for the second year in a row.
Washington State vs. Ole Miss Odds, Predictions
The results in 2025 have been bizarre.
The Cougars barely made it around Idaho, beat San Diego State, then got wiped out by North Texas.
Wazzu was then crushed by Washington, 59-24, in the Apple Cup, but responded with a clinical victory over Colorado State on the road, sending the Cougars to Oxford with a 3-2 record.
If you look at their first five games before the season, you’d probably guess they’d finish at 3-2, but the path they’ve taken to reach this very ordinary record has been nothing short of brilliant.
Hopefully things get even wackier when the Cougars travel to Ole Miss as a 32.5-point underdog on Saturday.
Faced with a gap like this, disability becomes as much an art as a science.
The tape history between these two teams screams mismatch, but this is the situation that should give you some hope that the Cougars can remain competitive.
First of all, it’s Wazzu’s Super Bowl. The Cougars will face the No. 4 team in the country in a packed SEC barn. This is their last, and really only, chance to really make an impact on the season.
For Ole Miss, this is a tune-up game. The Rebels are coming off a bow after beating LSU in a massive showdown, and they have trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on deck.
Lane Kiffin has no qualms about running up the score, but one has to imagine that even he will be happy to take a big lead and put on the handbrake to keep his starters healthy and fresh.
Betting on college football?
This should lead to a run-heavy approach from Ole Miss, at least in the second half, which will move the clock forward. This is always good news for big underdogs.
And finally, we should have some confidence that Washington State will be able to find some success against Ole Miss, who has had some issues stopping the run this season. One or two big plays, that’s all we’re asking for.
Washington State is right to be a huge underdog on Saturday. The statistical clash between these two teams is not close.
However, given the schedule and motivation angle, you can see a path where the Cougars are up for the challenge of keeping this one to under five scores, while Ole Miss isn’t as bothered.
The Play: Washington State +31.5 (-105, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a longtime Islanders fan, but a lifelong sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gaming industry. He loves using game theory to help bettors win pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
