The box office needs saving after a rough start to the fall season. October 2025 was the worst month in almost three decades, with numerous disappointments and failures crippling the entire period. November’s numbers will bring greener pastures with anticipated blockbusters like “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2” on deck. But are we discounting “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” as a possible sleeper hit? While it’s certainly not a guarantee, this long-awaited sequel has the potential to surprise.
Directed by Ruben Fleischer (“Uncharted”), the third installment in the “Now You See Me” franchise is expected to gross between $12 million and $17 million domestically when it opens next weekend, according to Box Office Theory. It’s likely to take home the silver medal since the adaptation of Edgar Wright’s “The Running Man” is eyeing an opening of at least $20 million. So, on the face of it, that’s not very promising, especially considering that “Now You See Me 2” cost around $90 million to produce. This third magical heist film appears to be just as expensive. But there is more to this equation than meets the eye.
2013’s “Now You See Me” opened to $29.3 million domestically and $351.7 million worldwide. “Now You See Me 2” opened a little softer at $22.3 million and still went on to gross $334.8 million worldwide, a big success by anyone’s reckoning. These films have never relied on big, flashy opening weekends to make their mark. That’s because they’ve been outsized hits internationally, which is undoubtedly what Lionsgate is hoping for here… especially after the studio had its worst year at the box office in 2024. It could use a win, and, if all goes well, this could be that win.
The Now You See Me films were huge successes abroad
The third film “Now You See Me” follows the now-retired Horsemen as they reunite for a diamond heist and team up with new, younger artists. Returning cast members include Jesse Eisenberg (J. Daniel Atlas), Woody Harrelson (Merritt McKinney), Dave Franco (Jack Wilder), Isla Fisher (Henley Reeves) and Morgan Freeman (Thaddeus Bradley), with newcomers Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”), Justice Smith (“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”), Ariana Greenblatt (“Barbie”) and Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”) rounding out the cast.
Assuming the overseas appeal is still there, a sub-$20 million start for this film is far from a death sentence. To put things into perspective, “Now You See Me” made almost two-thirds of its money internationally, while “Now You See Me 2” made just over 80% of its money overseas. It appears that viewership has increased between episodes, and for a Hollywood film, this level of overseas ticket sales is exceptionally rare. Certainly, international box office revenues have declined for American films in recent years, so that is going to be a factor here.
But there are exceptions to every rule and, historically, this franchise has been an exception. Some films are simply better distributed to international audiences. Indeed, “F1” is the biggest original film of 2025 with $629.5 million worldwide, 70% of which comes from ticket sales abroad. It still happens, and it could happen here too.
It helps that this film could also play an important role as part of the Thanksgiving holiday, and thrive for the weeks to come. If audiences are on this film’s side, it might feel like a magic trick in the end. Again, if international ticket sales are low, the situation could be difficult.
“Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” hits theaters on November 14, 2025.
