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MLB commercial impact: Josh Naylor exchanged sailors
The navies have their arms to run this season, which is why we had value on the navies like longshots to win the AL and World series, but their lack of bats has retained them in recent seasons. The model likes Josh Naylor’s capacity to strike for the average (0.292 in total), in particular against right -handed pitch (0.310 with a .888 OPS). The impact of Naylor landing is more seen on the chances of Seattle to make the playoffs than their chances of winning the Alcs or the World Series, which have not changed much. If Julio Rodriguez can become hot throughout the rest of the season, the AL is open enough for the sailors to earn +1100 to win the AL.
| Seattle Mariners | EARN | EARN% | Al West | Playoffs | Alcs | Ws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| without naylor | 88.9 | 54.9% | 32.8% | 79.4% | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| with Naylor | 89.2 | 55.1% | 35.5% | 81.7% | 17.4% | 8.6% |
| Difficulty | 0.3 | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The best price for Seattle to win the division that our books offer is at Caesars +375, which implies a little more than 21%. Our chance of almost 36% with Naylor in the range makes it a fairly strong Paris + $$$. Their chances of making the playoffs are between -240 (Draftkings) and -250 (Caesars, Fanduel). These involve more than 70% and we also have value with our forecasts of almost 82%.
Although the addition of Naylor has not improved the chances of Seattle of World Series in our simulations, they are still at almost 9%, which is more of double its expensive price of +2400 and 4% that fanatics offer. Fanduel and Caesars both offer +2100, 4.54%.
