MLB PICKS, BASEBALL BEST BET for Friday: Jesús Luzardo Stymies Angels, Byron BUSTON, remains hot
The regular MLB season has taken four days off and although we have seen an incredible celebration of the stars, it’s time to go back to work. Most of the teams have played nearly 100 games, so calling it the “second half” seems a little inaccurate, but that’s how we are doing things. It is time for the “second half”.
Let’s start things with a few victories.
The chances are today via draftkings.
Jesús Luzardo on 6.5 k (-130)
Luzardo, a SouthPaw, has withdrawn 122 strikers in 104 rounds so far this season with the Phillies. He has reached seven stick withdraws nine times, including three of his last four outings. Phillies welcome angels on Friday, which means that Luzardo can face the team with the highest withdrawal rate in baseball against 28.2%. The angels have not seen it this season either, so I like the relative ignorance.
Byron BUSTON more than 2.5 bases in total (+100)
Buxton ended the first half on a burst, going 12 for 22 with three doubles, a triple and two circuits in his last six games, good for a mad oblique bar line of .545 / .583 / 1.045. In the star match, he had a ninth round, RBI Double to get the AL in a race before marking the race for forcing the swing-off.
Buxton is now entering the second half in the Coors field of Colorado. He faces the left -hander Kyle Freeland. Buxton struck .321 / .391 / .696 against left -handed pitch this season. The start of the Kyle Freeland Rockies has an MPM of 6.69 at home and allows right -handers to strike. 327 / .364 / .476 against him.
If you are wondering if these two have ever faced each other before, yes, Buxton hit a freeland circuit – with a bag – in 2017.
The latter does not matter given much since how long it has been, but it does not hurt to see. Many things align for a big game of Buxton, so I will take the two bases in total. Hopefully he makes circuits in his first at-bat to collect our tickets.
The O’Hearn who jumped Lefty was fresh out of his first stars match and can play Tampa with the short right field porch and strikes in an excellent striker (hot / humid). On the Rays mound is the Taj Bradley, which was burned at home all season, sporting an MPM of 5.55. He abandoned eight circuits in nine home starts. In addition, the Orioles have already carved it on June 18 and 29. O’Hearn has 5 for 12 with two doubles and a home run against Bradley in his career.
Again, many things are aligning here.
Futures Play: Nick Kurtz to win the recruit of the year (+350)
It looks like a good time to jump on Kurtz. It was on an increase in major power, as indicated in the energy classification.
Kurtz entered the break with 17 circuits and 44 RBIs with a punch percentage of .558 and 143 OPS +. He only hit a home run until May 13. He hit his second until May 20. From May 20, Kurtz struck .287 / .376 / .713 (!) With seven doubles, 16 circuits and 38 points produced in his last 35 games. Talk about finding the big leagues, huh?
Jacob Wilson, teammate and star, is currently hitting .329 / .373 / .459 (131 ops +) with 2.2 war. Much of her game is supported by her average stick, but she was once as high as 0.372 (June 8). He struck. 192 in his last 20 games.
Things are really trendy towards Kurtz here.
