MLB Best Bets: NLDS Game 5 Tigers vs. Mariners

There’s no tomorrow for any of these teams!… Well, that’s an exaggeration, but someone’s season is going to end here. Let’s take a look.

Season record: 22-21-2, -0.67 units

Tigers at Mariners Game 5 Best Bets

Over 5.5 runs (-120 BetMGM)
(Mariners to win their series already in the account)

If you’re a baseball fan with no connection to the Tigers or Mariners, you can’t ask for much more than that. Only one playoff game for the right to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Tigers will start Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball, while the Mariners will start George Kirby and will most likely turn to Luis Castillo at some point later in the game. Sign me up!

Skubal only lost 6 games in the regular season, but somehow lost 2 to the Mariners. He didn’t pitch very well each time, producing 7 runs, 7 hits and 5 walks in 10.2 IP. He then faced them in Game 2 of this series last Sunday and gave up 2 home runs to Jorge Polanco, and not much else. In 7 IP, he struck out 9, walked 1, allowed 5 total hits and those two runs and left with no decision.

Kirby had a late start to the 2025 season and did not have a great year overall. However, he really managed to hold his own throughout the sequence. In his last 3 regular season starts, he had a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over 17.1 IP with 31 Ks (48.4%) against just 1 walk. He faced the Tigers in the first game and had 5 IP with 8 Ks and 1 walk. But alas, he allowed 6 hits, including a two-run homer against Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter poses a huge obstacle for Kirby as he has made 5 of 11 against him in his career. Remarkably, all 5 of these hits left the field. He hit hole number 2 in the first match, so expect to see him there or in the lead. This likely limits the length of Kirby’s outing, as there is virtually no chance of him facing “Kerry Bonds” a third time if the match is close at this point.

Fortunately for Seattle, they have Luis Castillo available on regular rest, and like Kirby, he caught fire late in the season with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last 4 starts. He went 4.2 shutout innings in Game 2 with just one hit, but he walked 4 Tigers. Although Castillo will almost certainly appear, it is possible that the Mariners initially replace Kirby with one of their left-handed relievers to face Carpenter and/or Riley Greene in the middle of the game.

With the day off, we get two fully available bullpens, although with Skubal on one side and the Kirby-Castillo combo on the other, we probably don’t see a huge amount of bullpen usage. This is really useful because both teams saw shaky relief outings from their intermediates. FWIW, Logan Gilbert pitched Wednesday and could have about an inning in his arm if the Mariners have to go that route.

With all this pitching excellence, why go for the over? Well, that’s just the number; specifically 5.5. Not much has to go right for one of these offenses to take the game to the next level. A hiccup from any of the above could prove costly, as both teams have enough hitters with pop to make them pay for an error. Specifically, Carpenter and Greene on the Tigers and Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco have all gone deep so far in the series.