The XRP army has drawn the line: the $ 3 award bar is now their battlefield. But, for the moment, the merchants do not seem to decide if XRP heads towards the moon or downwards towards Doom.
After hot inflation data attenuated hopes for reducing Jumbo rate earlier this week, XRP dropped by 6.4% – to this $ 3.00 pivot point which could define the next major cryptography movement.
On Myriad, a prediction market created by DecipherThe mother company Dastan, the traders remain slightly optimistic despite the correction. A myriad of users gives XRP 63.7% chance of reaching $ 4 or more (the scenario of the moon) against 36.3% chances of crashing at $ 2 or less (Doom).
So who is right?
XRP, the cryptocurrency created by the founders of the Ripple payment company, presents a technical puzzle which explains why traders are currently also divided.
For reference, even to just $ 3, XRP commands a market capitalization of $ 181 billion, good for the third more behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. And that comes out of a very recent $ 3.65 summit, which the room reached less than a month ago. So where is he going then?
To start, the distance from its current price (the white line in the graph below) to the moon (the green line) and its distance to doom (the red line) is fundamentally the same: 33.33%. Thus, the dimensions based on the jump percentage required to strike one or the other scenario are not really a factor for the moment. This will require a little more excavations.
XRP price data. Image: tradingView
A classic indicator for merchants is the relative force index, or RSI. For XRP, this is just at 48, just shy from the brand Neutre 50.
RSI measures the momentum on a scale of 0-100, where readings above 70 indicate the excessive conditions (sales time) and less than 30 indicate the occurrence (purchase time). At 48, we are in the country of man – slightly down but not enough to panic. This is what traders call the “decision -making zone”, where the markets choose their next management.
Going down RSI, under current conditions, market forces are balanced. However, the global trend is optimistic, which will therefore tell traders that prices are more likely to maintain momentum and speed unless something affects the trend.
The average directional index, or ADX, at 28, tells a more decisive story. ADX measures the trend force whatever management. Consider it as a speed counter that doesn’t care if you are moving forward or back. Readings above 25 confirm a strong trend, and at 28 years old, XRP is definitely trendy. This signals to traders that the ascending Movement of XRP is likely to continue, even if slowly. And, of course, the more the price increases, less a scenario of “destiny” of $ 2 becomes likely.
Another key indicator is the exponential mobile average, which measures the average price of an asset over a certain time. For XRP, the 50-day EMA is comfortably found above the 200-day EMA, creating what traders call an “increased battery”.
This means that the average short-term XRP price is negotiated above the average long-term price, which generally means that buyers will continue to intervene at higher prices. It is a vote of trust in the upward trend. This configuration generally promotes higher continuation unless something breaks.
For XRP to correct itself in the “Doom” area, it should completely change the momentum and, probably, enter into a death cross formation.
The only indicator that is not optimistic for XRP at the moment seems to be the scoring indicator, which shows a price consolidation area while the token linked to ripple has trouble exceeding its recent peak of all time. Consider it as the market breathe deeply before the next sprint.
Prices can undergo a higher trend up or down, depending on the catalysts. This “compression” area is considered a price compression because there are a large number of orders that are fighting to determine the trend. If short-term merchants leave these positions in the search for other markets, there could be a rapid drop in the same area as it could trigger many “Stop-Loss” areas. On the other hand, if there is a short pressure or if the bulls take control, it could trigger a peak based on the purchase controls activated too close to each other.
But the techniques tell only half of the story. The 30-day mobile average for XRP whale entries increased to 260 million tokens, from 141 million tokens at the beginning of July, with large holders of almost $ 6 billion since mid-July. It is a serious distribution that historically precedes the corrections, because the most logical reason to send an asset to an exchange is to sell it.
Meanwhile, the dry and Ripple ultimately ended their legal battle, eliminating a major overhang. Add 88% of Applorobe ETF XRP in December according to Polymarket and almost 60% preferably on an ETF Litecoin on Myriad Markets, and you have catalysts that could send XRP in one or the other direction – violently.
Weighing all the data, it is clear that the graphs are today slightly favorable to the XRP moon scenario. The combination of the price concerning an ascending channel, now the position above the two EMA key, and the pressure ready to draw convinced the merchants of a convincing brought configuration. The ADX confirming resistance to the trend while RSI is neutral gives an XRP place to operate without being overexxious.
Considering that the indicators show the traders in balance during a bullish movement (instead of showing such behavior when the part is negotiated on the side), the ascending channel and compressed volatility suggest that XRP could test $ 3.30 in a few days. An above rupture would probably trigger the momentum around $ 4.
But these massive sales of whales keep the scenario of destiny well alive. If the $ 2.80 support is cracking, all bullish bets are disabled. It’s the crypto – and when things break, they break hard.
The opinions and opinions expressed by the author are for information purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.
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