So, are you going with journalism as a choice to win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday in Churchill Downs?
Recent history is not on its side.
Journalism is the favorite of the morning line 3-1 for Kentucky Derby, but will have to reverse a recent trend of six post-time favorites without winning the race for roses.
In fact, the last four winners of Kentucky Derby went to the door with two-digit ratings: Mandaloun (26-1 in 2021), Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022), Mage (15-1 in 2023) and Mystik Dan (18-1 in 2024).
(Mandaloun won by disqualification after Medina Spirit, at 12-1, crossed the finish line first.)
This trend follows a sequence of six consecutive post-time favorites by winning the 2013-2018 Kentucky Derby.
“There are a thousand and one thing that can go wrong once the doors open,” said Mohawk Flying Whit Beckman coach, trying to explain the randomness of Kentucky Derby. “You don’t necessarily need the best horse to win the race, but you need a horse that gets the trip and can manage the distance.”
If you are looking for options other than journalism to win Kentucky Derby, here are four that can beat it:
He is the second choice of the morning line to 5-1 and has coach Bill Mott at the idea of winning his second victory for Kentucky Derby.
“I think we also have a chance this year that we probably had it,” said Mott.
Sovereignty won Grade 3 Street Stakes last October in Churchill Downs – a race that also included candidates for Kentucky Derby Tiztastic and Sandman – and will enter the race for roses after a second place in Florida Derby.
Sovereignty has made a strong late race in the Florida derby and figures to be loaded late in Kentucky Derby.
“It was a deeper closer, so we always have the impression that these horses will go further,” said Mott. “It is not always true. Sometimes they close a mile and an eighth well, then they do not close a mile and a quarter as well.
“I hope this is not the case with him. I hope that he will continue to be able to maintain his race, but until they do it, they have not proven it.… They must do it on the first Saturday in May. ”
Of all the horses that will face the early head, Rodriguez seems to have the best chance of keeping it.
He won a speed number 101 Beyer after having wired the ground in the challenges of the Memorial Wood and seems to have regained a form after a pair of losses at the Santa Anita Park.
“I loved his wood,” said coach Bob Baffert. “He was just out and continued.
Jockey Rodriguez Mike Smith has two victories of Kentucky Derby and – at 58 – try to become the oldest jockey to win the race for roses.
Like sovereignty, Burnham Square thinks late as he did by rallying since the last place to win the blue grass.
“I think it corresponds well,” said coach Ian Wilkes. “And I think a mile and a quarter are in my shooting.”
Burnham Square will be mounted by Brian Hernandez Jr., who won the Kentucky Derby last year with Mystik Dan.
His supporters will also like a regular progression of Beyer’s speed figures since his first race – 58, 83, 86, 90, 91 and 96 in blue grass.
“He improves more and more every time,” said Wilkes. “Ensure the constituent elements and continue to build for the derby.”
To date, Baeza still needed a defection to make the field of Kentucky Derby. If he does it, look outside.
The late development colt broke his young daughter on February 14, then briefly took the lead in the Santa Anita derby before finishing as second, three quarters of length behind journalism.
“I thought he had run a remarkable race,” said coach John Shirreffs. “He went widely on the path. Get out of the stretch turn, he was carrying a little. Once he changed the slopes, he took off again. Being green and knowing that he can do better, it was a very good race.”
Shirreffs won the Kentucky Derby with a 50-1 Giacomo shot in 2005.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerByCJ.
