President Donald Trump offered a series of rapid-fire claims Wednesday night about the economic, military and societal impact of the first year of his second administration — some accurate or close to reality, while others seemed misleading or false.
Trump covered a wide variety of topics in his 18-minute speech, touching on everything from wages and jobs to the strength of the military and its efforts to combat illegal immigration.
NBC News has selected eight key claims for which to provide context and data.
- Trump said: “Wages are rising much faster than inflation. »
Wages outpace inflation, but “lots” of debate given the pace of wage growth has slowed significantly this year. In January, average wages increased at a rate of 4.1%. On Tuesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October-November jobs report, the pace had fallen to 3.5%. Inflation is currently 3.0% and has been increasing every month since April.
It’s also worth noting that even though the Biden administration has endured much higher inflation rates, wages have broadly kept pace with rising prices, even for the lowest-paid workers.
- Trump said: Under former President Joe Biden, “our border was open, and because of that, our country was being overrun by an army of 25 million people, many of whom came from jails, prisons, mental institutions and insane asylums. »
This statement is false. In fact, 7.4 million undocumented immigrants crossed the border outside of legal checkpoints under the Biden administration, according to Customs and Border Protection data.
Counting people who crossed the border at legal but undocumented ports of entry, that still only amounts to 10.2 million.
About 800,000 immigrants have entered the country through legal programs implemented under Biden, such as protected status programs for residents of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
- Trump said: “Egg prices are down 82% since March, and everything else is falling rapidly. »
This statement is false. The price of eggs is down 43.9% since March, according to government Consumer Price Index data. Prices for some items in the BLS inflation report may be falling, but overall they continue to rise.
The BLS has not released price data for the past two months due to the government shutdown. November inflation data will be released Thursday morning.
- Trump said: “Gasoline is now less than $2.50 a gallon in much of the country. In some states, it just reached $1.99 a gallon.”
Trump’s broader argument that gas prices are falling is correct. However, the average price he quotes is not. According to the federal Energy Information Administration, the average price of regular gas is $2.89. According to AAA, the national average is $2.90.
GasBuddy, a service that tracks thousands of gas stations across the country, lists a small number of gas stations in seven states whose gas is closer to $1.99. But, for example, in Missouri and South Dakota there are only two stations. In Tennessee, there is only one. In Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma, there are fewer than a dozen stations each.
- Trump said: “The price of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33% from Biden last year. »
This statement is false. The price of a Thanksgiving turkey fell this year, but only 3.7% for national brands, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Foods Institute. Overall, according to the institute, the cost of a Thanksgiving meal decreased 2 to 3 percent this year.
- Trump said: “I have already secured a record $18 trillion investment in the United States. »
This figure is false. Experts say the real figure is several billion dollars lower, and the White House itself lists a figure of $9.6 trillion on its website as of Wednesday evening.
Other analyzes of Trump’s rolling foreign investment numbers have noted that he includes in his tally amorphous promises made by the United States’ trading partners that promise investment by companies in those countries — promises that the government has little power to enforce.
A recent fact check by Bloomberg News found that the real figure was closer to $7 trillion. But here too, many investments were vague promises or part of framework trade agreements that have not yet been signed.
- Trump said: “The year before I was elected, all net job creation went to foreign migrants. Since I took office, 100% of all net job creation has gone to U.S.-born citizens.”
This statistic does not mean what Trump says it means. The number of foreign-born or native-born workers in the U.S. workforce at any given time is a complex estimate based on population projections and samples, not an absolute number.
Likewise, just because people weren’t born in the country doesn’t mean they aren’t citizens today: in 2024, the most recent year of data, the United States granted citizenship to more than 800,000 people.
To get a better idea of how each group fares in the job market, experts suggest comparing the unemployment rate of the two groups.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for native-born workers has increased, from 3.9% in November 2024 under Biden to 4.3% last month under Trump.
During the same period, the unemployment rate for foreign-born workers declined from 4.5% in November last year under Biden to 4.4% last month under Trump. By this measure, Trump has been better than Biden for foreign-born workers.
- Trump said: “I have negotiated directly with pharmaceutical companies and foreign countries, who have taken advantage of our country for many decades, to reduce the prices of drugs and pharmaceutical products by up to 400%, 500% and even 600%. In other words, your drug costs are going to plummet downward.”
Trump and drugmakers have touted a range of deals, but it’s far from clear whether consumers have benefited.
Little data is available to support Trump’s general claims or whether the companies have delivered on their promises. None of the announced deals came close to the level of price reduction described by Trump.
Pfizer said in a statement that it had reached an agreement with the administration to reduce costs “by an average of 50%.” Savings could reach up to 85%.
One area where Trump has made many deals – the GLP-1 weight loss drugs – has been particularly tense. Experts believe that these agreements, although ambitious, leave major questions unanswered.
Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk and the administration reached an agreement to reduce prices by around 40%. The deal is contingent on sales through the TrumpRX platform, which has not yet launched.
Companies with deals with the White House said the specific terms of the deals were confidential or the details were not yet fully finalized.
Additionally, Trump hit trading partners such as the European Union, of which Germany and Ireland are major sources of U.S. drug imports, with tariffs of up to 20 percent. Before Trump took office, these imports were largely tariff-free. In early December, the administration reached an agreement with the United Kingdom to reduce tariffs on pharmaceuticals to 0%, but imports from many other trading partners are still subject to tariffs. Some EU medicine imports are currently subject to customs duties of 15%.
