Washington, DC – Even if the American birth rate fell to a hollow of 1.6 births per woman, the Americans continue to say that the size of the ideal family includes an average of 2.7 children.
In recent decades, the divergence between ideal and reality has become particularly wide because the fertility rate fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman necessary to maintain the size of the American population. This suggests that the drop in births can be more motivated by practical challenges that make people more difficult for people to have as many children as they want, rather than attitudes in the size of the ideal family.
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In 1936, when Gallup measured the size of the favorite family for the first time, the ideal average number of children was 3.6. The preferences were relatively stable until 1967, with the average fluctuation of 3.3 to 3.6 children. In 1973, however, the size of the ideal family of the Americans fell below 3.0 children, at 2.8 for the first time. This probably reflected changing cultural norms and increased concern about a global population explosion after the successful book The population bomb was published in 1968.
The preferences of Americans for families of three or more children continued to fall throughout the 1970s and 1980s, which included three American recession. The average has since fluctuated between 2.4 and 2.7, but took place at 2.7 in the last three readings, in 2018, 2023 and now.
The plurality of Americans still say that two children are ideal
The last average, with a survey from July 7 to 21, reflects more than four out of five Americans saying that at least two children are the ideal number for a family. This includes 40% who think that having two children is optimal, while 27% prefer three children, 11% think that four are the best, and 4% say that having five or more children is ideal. At the other end of the spectrum, 4% of us, adults, think that having a child is ideal, while 2% say that the ideal family does not include any child.
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While the majority of American adults preferred to have at least three children until 1970, less than half have favored this arrangement since. However, after having flowed below 30% in 1986 and 1990, and remaining mainly below 40% to 2013, the conviction of the Americans according to which the size of the ideal family includes three or more children has been constantly greater than 40% in recent years. The last reading is the second consecutive time that preferences for one or two children (44%) are statistically linked to preferences for three or more (42%).
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The size preferences of the ideal family differ between the sub-groups
Men, American adults who attend the weekly or monthly religious services, republicans, people of color and men under the age of 50 are much more likely than their counterparts to prefer three or more children. Meanwhile, adults who rarely or never attend religious services, democrats, whites, adults under the age of 30 and women under 50 are much more likely than their counterparts to say that one or two children are ideal.
Several other sub-groups, including political self-employed, adults aged 30 and over, and men and women aged 50 and over, are divided into their points of view on having one or two children or to have three or more is ideal.
Compared to 2011, when a majority of Americans (57%) said that one or two children were ideal, almost all of these sub-groups saw at least a slight increase in preferences for three or more children, with an average of nine percentage points among all American adults. This includes two -digit changes among men of all ages, almost weekly or monthly, republicans, independents and adults aged 30 to 49 and 50 to 64 years.
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Although the subject of the increase in fertility rate was recently discussed by certain eminent republican leaders, notably President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, the opinions of republicans on the ideal number of children have not changed significantly since previous reading in 2023.
Implications
Gallup measures the opinions of Americans on the size of the ideal family periodically for almost 90 years. After falling sharply in the second half of the 20th Century in parallel with the American birth rate, the size of the favorite family of Americans has now stabilized at a level that goes well. The persistence of this gap suggests that the economic and cultural opposite winds could be at work. High costs for housing, childcare, health care and higher education, associated with delayed marriage and parenting, birth control and lower religiosity, are probably among the factors with birth rates despite continuous preference for more children.
These practical factors shape not only individual lives, but also the demographic fate of the country. The fact that certain groups, including men, republicans and more religious adults, lean towards larger families emphasize how ideas on the size of the family reflect wider cultural forces, not just individual choices.
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