How long do the films stay in theaters? These are not just a question of ticket sales

These days, the theatrical race of a given film is as difficult to predict as ever. It was a direct question of financial performance and all that the competitors entered in theaters in the weeks following the release of a film. From now on, the popularity of streaming, video services on demand, the drop in the physical media market and the increase in the cost of modern blockbusters have all played their role in the way the way cinemas and studios plan their theatrical windows.

In recent years, the average theatrical window has landed between 30 and 45 days in all wide outings, but this number oscillates from year to year and cinematographic. Before the mass closure of theaters during the COVVI-19 pandemic in 2020, there were several franchises and types of films which seemed to be guarantees for the main features and long tracks. But with properties like the Marvel cinematographic universe which now fights in box office and more isolated events such as the Barbenheimer phenomenon catching the zeitgeist, it can be difficult to know in advance how much a given film will be one of theaters.

However, we can predict with a certain precision how long a film will remain on the big screen, taking out a few factors. Box-office performance in the first two weeks remains a strong indicator of longevity, but other things like streaming synergy and the time of year is also playing a role.

Despite an increasingly complex market, box office performance is always the main indicator of the duration of a film in cinemas. If your film earns money for theaters, they will want to continue to show it. If it is a failure, it will probably be the next one to make room for something that could be more effective.

“Oppenheimer” in 2023 is an excellent example – a film not franchised by R which nevertheless reached the longest theatrical window of the year to 122 days. The reason? “Oppenheimer” is the third highest film Rédequat R of all time and was the second largest at the time of its release, only now overcome by “Joker” and “Deadpool & Wolverine”. Christopher Nolan’s film reported just under a billion dollars to the world box office. When you earn as much money, the rest doesn’t really matter – the theaters will want to continue playing your film, and the studio will want to keep it there.

That said, the film always had its own star power in the form of its director. Nolan has become one of the biggest prints of recent years, and all that he directs receives a certain degree of cultural influence and marketing support, which inevitably plays in the prolonged success of the box office.

While theaters reopened its immediate doors of the first major wave of COVI-19 in the world, the studios have adopted hybrid release models to adapt to a seriously reduced person. In many cases, the main films fell on the respective streaming platforms of their day and date studios with their first theatricals. Warner Bros. led the charge with this approach, with films like “Wonder Woman 1984” and “Godzilla against Kong” streaming on HBO Max at the same time as they were first in cinemas.

In the years preceding COVID-19, it was standard that the films had a theatrical exclusivity for a period of around 90 days. This did not necessarily mean that films would play so long, but it meant that digital and physical versions would not fall before the expiration of this period. However, the damage of the pandemic, combined with other important upheavals in industry such as the strike of the Guild of Writers in 2023, led this shrinking window for many versions. Even after the end of the day and date streaming model, in the wake of the pandemic, many studios continued to drop their films digitally much earlier than that of 90 days earlier.

Although a large part of this is directly due to the impact of COVVI-19 theater closures, the streaming itself has also played a major role in change.

At the same time, industry strikes and a world pandemic have reshaped the film industry, streaming has become the king’s de facto king in the world. Which was once a small market inhabited by Netflix, Hulu and HBO Max has become incredibly crowded in the years surrounding the pandemic, with Nbcuniversal, Disney, Paramount, and even more the launch of their own platforms.

This meant that even if the attendance of the theater began to bounce back, the studios had new incentives to bring new content to digital platforms as quickly as possible. Many films are always falling on the purchase on Blu-ray or VOD services after their theatrical windows, then later streaming, so there is a stamp there, but with the bottom after abandoning physical media sales, streaming has become the main secondary market to draw an additional value from a theatrical version.

While theaters are doing much better than they were immediately after the pandemic, they never completely reappeared. Things continue to worry because more and more people adopt a home visualization – whether by streaming or digital rentals – as the main method to watch both movies and shows. This has led many studios to considerably reduce this 90 -day precovid theatrical exclusive window, by moving the media to home sites as quickly as possible to strike while iron is still hot and seize viewers who simply do not want to go to the cinema. While cinema representatives have called upon countermeasures in recent years, such as a 45-day standard exclusivity window between studios, such measures seem unlikely to settle.

When we talk about the duration of films in theaters, it is also important to recognize the many types of cinemas. While large channels like Regal and AMC govern the industry, they operate very differently from smaller and independent theaters, which can be much more common and have a significant community traction on certain markets. If you are a smaller theater with fewer screens, it is more difficult to operate older films, because these limitations require frequent change to bring the latest versions.

Of course, the same goes for independent films. Although the opening weekend and the first two weeks are the most important for any film, word of mouth can give long legs to the films that do not explode immediately in popularity. “Elemental” of Pixar from 2023 is an excellent example. However, if the film in question does not have the power of a star or the marketing budget that a more important version made, it will probably never have the possibility of constituting this reputation of word of mouth.

As Balloon budgets for superproductions, a release list of the given year depends more and more versions fewer and fewer “events” versions, rather than on the constant flow of smaller blockbusters which were the standard. Individual films must work better and better to justify their Gargantuanian expenses, reducing the “middle class” of cinematographic versions.

In recent years, the standard theatrical race for a film has been around 40 days. It is quite time to take a little traction, but there is unfortunately not a ton of space there so that the films compensate the slow departures at the box office. All these factors – higher budgets, the narrowing of exclusive windows, the decrease in attendance and the rise in streaming – have put a little support on the potential of any individual film to become a theatrical success.

That said, all hope is not lost for those of us who always believe that no experience at home can compare ourselves to see a film on the big screen with other films lovers. The apocalyptic speeches of theaters “died” have circulated for years, and although the company has certainly suffered, it is still there. Likewise, unexpected sensations such as Barbenheimer and modern massive successes like “Avatar: The Way of Water” prove that many people always want to go out in the movies if they are forced to go. Hopefully this feeling will develop, even if the industry is struggling to adapt to a constantly evolving landscape.