EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ — There’s a lot on the line Sunday for two 2-13 teams when the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders meet at Allegiant Stadium (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS). Namely, pole position for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Giants and Raiders currently have a 37.6% and 36.2% chance, respectively, of landing the coveted first pick, according to ESPN Analytics. The Giants would be comfortably in control heading into the Week 18 matchup with Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys if they lose in Las Vegas. Ditto for the Raiders with the Kansas City Chiefs on the horizon for their finale.
New York’s chances rise to 73% to get the first pick in the event of a loss to the Raiders. They drop to 6% in the event of victory. Conversely, the Raiders climb to 69% with a loss and less than 1% with a victory.
All of this is possible because the Giants and Raiders are riding a nine-game losing streak. This is the first time in NFL history that two teams with at least nine skids in the same season have met, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
But it’s clear that there’s a lot at stake for both teams, beyond ending their losing streaks, even if those involved don’t want to see it that way.
“I mean, I really don’t think we talk too much about that part of draft positioning and wanting a certain pick or anything like that,” Giants receiver Wan’Dale Robinson said. “I think we just want to go out there and play our best football and go out there and get a win.”
For the Giants, a win could mean preventing them from getting a big gain in a trade for the top pick, likely from a team in desperate need of a quarterback. Or they could just stay #1 and select a blue-chip player without any hesitation or obstruction.
For the Raiders, a loss could mean having a choice as the top quarterback in this year’s draft, regardless of who they decide on — likely Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or Oregon’s Dante Moore, if he declares for the draft. This could prove valuable with 35-year-old starter (and former Giant) Geno Smith.
Either way, it’s not hard to see why this matchup between two struggling teams is so valuable. So while the loser may technically be the winner, it’s not something Giants interim coach Mike Kafka has even mentioned to his team this week.
“I haven’t talked about it with the players. The players want to win. The coaching staff wants to win this week,” Kafka said. “Our only focus is this week. And so all of our messages, all we talk about is how we can get better, first of all, as a team, and then what we need to do today to go to Vegas and beat the Raiders.”
Tell that to the fans of every team. The public focus is primarily on what this game means in terms of draft positioning.
The Giants ruled out left tackle Andrew Thomas on Friday with a hamstring injury and center John Michael Schmitz Jr. is questionable because of a finger issue that’s keeping him from snapping.
Las Vegas placed tight end Brock Bowers and safety Jeremy Chinn on injured reserve earlier this week. Bowers has been dealing with a knee injury for much of the season, but finished Sunday’s loss to the Houston Texans. Chinn also landed on IR after playing all 61 defensive snaps against the Houston Texans.
But don’t tell Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby what his positioning is for a draft pick.
“Yeah, I don’t care about the pick, to be honest. I don’t play for that. That’s not my job,” Crosby said after the 23-21 loss to the Texans. “My job is to be the best defensive end in the world. That’s what I focus on every day. And being a great leader, having an influence, being that guy consistently for my team.
“That’s their job, the front office, the coaches. They do that. But it has nothing to do with me. I’ve learned that lesson in the past. I’m not trying to… you can’t control everything. That’s not my job description. My job is to be the best in the world at what I do. It destroys the game.”
The Raiders eventually arrested Crosby, much to his chagrin. He was ruled out on Sunday due to a lingering knee problem that he wanted to resolve.
Worrying about the draft isn’t Crosby’s responsibility, but it may also be unnecessary.
The Giants played Washington late in the 2019 season in what was dubbed “The Chase Young Bowl.” The loser of this game was expected to be in prime position to recruit former Ohio State star Chase Young.
New York won thanks to five touchdown passes from Daniel Jones. The Commanders ended up taking Young second overall in the 2020 draft. The Giants, perhaps coincidentally, ended up with standout left tackle Andrew Thomas.
Unfortunately, New York has often found itself in this situation in recent years. The Giants won in Week 17 last year against the Colts to eliminate them from the race for the No. 1 overall pick. The Tennessee Titans ultimately selected quarterback Cam Ward with the first pick while the Giants took third overall Abdul Carter and had to move back to the bottom half of the first round for quarterback Jaxson Dart.
The Giants also won three straight games late in the 2023 season with Tommy DeVito at quarterback to eliminate them from the race for quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. They were selected by Chicago, Washington and New England respectively, while New York remained at No. 6 and landed star receiver Malik Nabers.
The Giants haven’t made the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft since they drafted running back Tucker Frederickson from Auburn in 1965.
